Effect of the 65 m.p.h. speed limit on highway safety in the U.S.A. (with comments and reply to comments)

Godwin, Stephen R.; Lave, Charles

doi:10.1080/01441649208716800

Cited by 20 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…In a reply, Godwin (1992) pointed out that if the fatality savings occurred because of traYc diversion, the required shift in traYc to generate the expected savings would be 88.5 million vehicle-miles, much higher than the observed 14.8% increase in RI vehicle-miles. Lave and Elias (1994) re® ned Lave' s (1992) argument.…”

Section: Local Versus System-wide Evectsmentioning

confidence: 94%

“…An interesting twist in this literature occurred when Lave (1992), in a response to a survey paper by Godwin (1992) on the eVects of the 65 mph speed limit, commented that the new law could have actually saved lives. Godwin presented information that from 1986 to 1988, RI and non-interstate fatalities increased 35 and 0% respectively in 65-mph states; in 55-mph states the respective increases were 9 and 2% .…”

Section: Local Versus System-wide Evectsmentioning

confidence: 96%

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Effect of speed limits on speed distributions and highway safety: A survey of recent literature

McCarthy¹

2001

Transport Reviews

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This paper examines recent work on the eVect of motor vehicle speed limits on highway speeds and highway safety. The review is empirical and concentrates on identifying the quantitative eVects that changes in regulatory speed limit policies on interstate and non-interstate roads have on the distribution of speeds and traYc safety. Among the ® ndings, small speed limit changes on non-limited-access roads will have little eVect on speed distribution and highway safety unless complemented with speed-reducing actions. Also, the 10 mph increase in rural interstate speed limits increased nationwide mean speed and speed variance by < 4 and 1 mph respectively. Further, notwithstanding higher rural interstate speed limits leading to speed adaptation on non-aVected roads, the evidence is consistent with a zero system-wide eVect. Implications for further research relate to the importance of controlling for confounding factors, aggregation, the use of alternative methodologies, and the importance of enforcement in aVecting speed distributions and highway safety.

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Section: Local Versus System-wide Evectsmentioning

confidence: 94%

Section: Local Versus System-wide Evectsmentioning

confidence: 96%

Effect of speed limits on speed distributions and highway safety: A survey of recent literature

McCarthy¹

2001

Transport Reviews

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“…Much of the U.S. research that evaluates the impact of speed limits on road safety (including Garber and Graham (1989), Godwin (1992), McCarthy (1994aMcCarthy ( , 1994b) focuses on the effects of increasing the speed limit from 55 to 65 mph on rural interstate highways 39 and generally finds that increases in posted speed limits reduce road safety on highways. A widely cited study by Garber and Graham (1989), for example, finds that the higher rural interstate speed limits led to a 15% increase in fatalities on rural interstate highways and a 5% increase on non-rural interstate 37 Most of these control for more variables than Lave but are still generally based on data for a single cross section of states.…”

Section: 22a Speed and Speed Limitsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Traffic Fatalities and Economic Growth

Kopits¹,

Cropper²

2003

Policy Research Working Papers

217

218

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This dissertation adds to the current understanding of the socioeconomic determinants of traffic fatality rates by examining the variation in road deaths across countries and over time. Chapter two investigates the relationship between road safety and economic development within an Environmental Kuznets Curve framework. Reduced-form models of fatality risk as a function of per capita income are estimated using panel data for over 80 countries. The results confirm an inverted U-shaped relationship with income, with traffic fatality risk (fatalities per population) beginning to decline at incomes similar to those found for several environmental externalities. The turning point is driven by the rate of decline in fatalities per vehicle as income rises, since motorization rates (vehicles per population), while increasing with income at a decreasing rate, never decline with economic growth. This suggests that road safety improvements accompanying income growth depend on policies that reduce fatalities per vehicle rather than on reducing motorization.Projections suggest that the global road death toll will grow by 66% between 2000 and 2020 if historic trends continue. This number, however, reflects divergent rates of change in different parts of the world.Chapter three focuses on factors underlying the decline in fatalities per distance traveled, i.e., the downward sloping part of the road safety Kuznets curve.Formal models of traffic fatalities are developed for vehicle occupants and pedestrians. Reduced-form approximations to these models are estimated using panel data for over 30 high-income countries over 1964-2002. Estimates suggest that demographic changes and road building contributed to declines in both vehicle occupant and non-occupant fatality rates. In addition, increases in the size of the vehicle fleet, as predicted by theory, have increased occupant deaths while decreasing pedestrian deaths per distance driven.Improvements in medical care also played a role in reducing both fatality rates. The results do not offer evidence of a significant increase in demand for risky driving in response to newer, safer vehicles or seatbelt usage. The extent to which alcohol and increases in the elderly population have detrimental effects on fatality rates is found to be twice as large for pedestrians as for vehicle occupants.

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“…Both studies controlled for the VMT only and both reported an overall system-wide decrease in fatalities. Godwin indicated that such a system-wide fatality decrease resulted from an unreasonably high VMT shift from non-Interstate rural roads to rural Interstates [Godwin 1992]. Lave, however attributes the decrease to more efficient allocation of police resources in addition to the traffic diversion.…”

Section: Speed Limit Changes and Highway Safety -National Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Analysis of Speed Limit Policies for Indiana

khan¹,

Sinha²,

McCarthy³

2001

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impacts such as safety and economic productivity. The goal of this research is to develop a framework for evaluating the impacts of speed limit changes in the State of Indiana and to use this framework to develop a set of speed limit policy guidelines for the state. The study reviews the historical trends in traffic speed in Indiana and recommends a detailed analysis of the impact of speed limit changes on safety and the trucking industry in Indiana. The report also presents a stateof-the-art practice review and a set of possible actions that may be considered for speed limits in Indiana. 17 The study was carried out with the following objectives:• Make available to INDOT, and ultimately the Indiana legislature, a systematic and comprehensive account of all aspects of the current speed limit policy, and selected speed limit policy scenarios.• Provide information about individual, interactive, and overall impacts of all factors involved in the evaluation process.• Assist in formulating for any possible changes in speed limit policy for the state highway network in Indiana.A carefully planned speed limit policy can reduce highway crashes, increase mobility, and enhance economic productivity. Given the large and ever-increasing usage of highways, the impact of such a study can be significant in terms of dollar savings. summarizes the findings of these international studies and is adopted from the TRB study [TRB 1998].In general, the analyses are similar to those for the studies carried out in the United and roadway safety features are tested to (sometime beyond) limits at higher speeds.

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Effect of the 65 m.p.h. speed limit on highway safety in the U.S.A. (with comments and reply to comments)

Cited by 20 publications

References 6 publications

Effect of speed limits on speed distributions and highway safety: A survey of recent literature

Effect of speed limits on speed distributions and highway safety: A survey of recent literature

Traffic Fatalities and Economic Growth

An Analysis of Speed Limit Policies for Indiana

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