The extratropical westerly circulation exhibits frequent latitudinal displacements on the synoptic timescale, manifesting as Rossby waves with alternating ridges and troughs. Under certain circumstances, a large meandering of the westerly jet induces stagnant weather patterns such as atmospheric blocking, resulting in regional temperature extremes or severe air pollution (Buehler et al., 2011;Pfahl & Wernli, 2012;W. Sun et al., 2019). It was hypothesized that Arctic amplification, the enhanced surface warming in the Arctic region relative to lower latitudes under increasing greenhouse gases, slows down the midlatitude westerly flow, which, in turn, causes an increase in circulation waviness and associated weather extremes (Francis & Vavrus, 2012). While there is observational evidence for the coincidence between Arctic amplification and increasing waviness (Francis et al., 2017;Vavrus, 2018), the observed multidecadal trends in waviness are rather weak and largely obscured by internal variability of the climate system (Blackport & Screen, 2020). Using large ensembles from multiple climate models, Smith et al. ( 2022) conclude a robust, weak winter circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss, but models also exhibit substantial internal variability, for which even a 100-member ensemble may be insufficient to detect robust midlatitude circulation response to Arctic warming (Peings et al., 2021;L. Sun et al., 2022). Moreover, the weakened midlatitude jet stream due to Arctic warming can be offset by tropical upper-tropospheric warming that strengthens the jet, producing a net effect of small decreases in waviness at the end of the 21st century, albeit with considerable model spread (