Effects of changes in rainfall and temperature on age- and sex-specific patterns of rural-urban migration in sub-Saharan Africa

Climate shocks, agriculture, and migration in Nepal: Disentangling the interdependencies

“…The climate-economy literature uses long difference estimations for more robust estimates of the impact of climate on economic outcomes, but has found little difference between short and long-term effects (Dell et al 2012;Hsiang 2016). In an aggregate analysis, Weinreb et al (2020) find that decreases in rainfall and increases in variability of temperature in 41 Sub-Saharan African countries increased rural net out-migration over the 1980-2015 period, and the effects intensified during this period. Two other studies investigate climate measures over longer time periods as drivers of migration decisions (Dallmann and Millock 2017;Falco et al 2018)-interstate in India and international, respectively.…”

Is migration an effective adaptation to climate-related agricultural distress in sub-Saharan Africa?

“…Notwithstanding the variable pressures exerted by migration drivers and the diverse mobility responses that follow, the degree of choice regarding the migration decision also varies in different populations and contexts. Migration is considered a core element of household adaptation and survival and less so a choice, especially in areas reliant on rain-fed subsistence agriculture (Weinreb et al, 2020). This is supported by research evaluating the effect of changing weather patterns on migration across 41 sub-Saharan African countries over 35 years, leading to the recommendation to sustainably transform rural structures to enable people to stay in place (Weinreb et al, 2020).…”

“…Migration is considered a core element of household adaptation and survival and less so a choice, especially in areas reliant on rain-fed subsistence agriculture (Weinreb et al, 2020). This is supported by research evaluating the effect of changing weather patterns on migration across 41 sub-Saharan African countries over 35 years, leading to the recommendation to sustainably transform rural structures to enable people to stay in place (Weinreb et al, 2020). Supporting this view of migration as adaptation, three historical case studies of famines and migrations in rural northwest Nigeria highlighted the possibility that both heavy, poorly timed rainfalls and severe droughts might contribute to famines and large-scale migrations from the Sahel to the Savanna, which has served a historical function as a refuge for food-stressed populations.…”

“…Alternatively, this trend may incentivize support for women to move to settings with the promise of a better quality of life, possibly increasing income stability within the extended family, due to remittances. Recent evidence suggests that girls in SSA are delaying the transition from school into the labour market relative to boys (Doss et al, 2020), which may lead to an older age profile amongst rural women out-migrants in areas with higher climate variability (Weinreb et al, 2020).…”

“…The following indicators emerged as most important for Bourasso: households' economic situation, food security, health, wellbeing, and whether to migrate again. Building on the NELM and the Warner and Afifi framework, this study looks at migration as a household adaptation strategy, which was shaped by climate-related crop yield decline and the lack of alternative income sources (Stark & Bloom, 1985;Warner & Afifi, 2014;Weinreb et al, 2020). Through this lens, we investigate the migration outcomes in Bourasso.…”