Effects of climate and land‐use change on storm runoff generation: present knowledge and modelling capabilities

Abstract

Abstract:There are several indications that changes in land cover have influenced the hydrological regime of various river basins. In addition, the effects of climate change on the hydrological cycle and on the runoff behaviour of river catchments have been discussed extensively in recent years. However, it is at present rather uncertain how, how much and at which spatial scale these environmental changes are likely to affect the generation of storm runoff, and consequently the flood discharges of rivers. Firstly, this paper gives an overview of the possible effects of climatic and land-use change on storm runoff generation. Secondly, it discusses models dealing with the hydrological response to climate and land-use variations, including both the downscaling of climate information from global circulation models and the way flood forecasting models represent land-use conditions. Finally, two modelling studies of meso-scale catchments in Germany are presented: the first shows the possible impacts of climate change on storm runoff production, and the second the impacts of land-use changes.

Climate change and river flooding: Part 2 sensitivity characterisation for british catchments and example vulnerability assessments

“…The scale (both in terms of the number of scenarios and number of catchments) of the sensitivity analyses undertaken by Prudhomme et al (submitted) made possible the quantification of the variety of catchment's responses to climatic changes in Britain and the link between these responses and catchment properties -and by extension, to the main hydrological processes of the catchments. These results approach a formalised categorisation of 'impact of changes on hydrological processes' as attempted empirically for land use changes by Bronstert et al (2002) and Wilby et al (2008). The role of different processes shaping the response of a system to climatic change is unlikely to be relevant only to river flooding.…”

At what scales do climate variability and land cover change impact on flooding and low flows?

“…Relevant publications include Lall (2005), Pittock (2002), Trenberth (1999), Benestad (2003), Beniston et al (1997), Hanson et al (2004), Svensson et al (2005), Hisdal et al (2001), and Llasat et al (2005). Similarly, there have been numerous publications on land cover change effects on floods, low flows and, more generally water yield, including Robinson et al (2003), Brown et al (2005), Andréassian (2004), Cosandey et al (2005), Bonell and Bruijnzeel (2005), Bonell (1999), Mahé et al (2005b), Archer (2003), Jones (2000), Bronstert et al (2002) and Pfister et al (2004). Rodriguez-Iturbe (2000), Peterson et al (2000), Woods (2005) and Anderson et al (2005) provide perspective on hydrological variability and other background information highly relevant to the issue of scales of climate variability and land cover change impact on flooding and low flows.…”

Reference hydrologic networks I. The status and potential future directions of national reference hydrologic networks for detecting trends

“…Land-use change can also have significant effects on streamflow (e.g. Bronstert et al 2002, Brandes et al 2005, Schilling et al 2010. Nevertheless, there is evidence that the rapid warming between the 1970s and 2000s had induced earlier snowmelt and associated peak streamflow in western North America (Dettinger and Cayan 1995, Leith and Whitfield 1998, Whitfield and Cannon 2000, Cayan et al 2001, Regonda et al 2005, Stewart et al 2005 and eastern North America (Hodgkins et al 2003, Hodgkins and Dudley 2006, Burns et al 2007, as well as earlier break-up of river ice in Russian Arctic rivers (Smith 2000), many Canadian rivers (Zhang et al 2001), and rivers in the far northeastern USA (Hodgkins et al 2005).…”