Effects of climate change and anthropogenic modification on a disturbance‐dependent species in a large riverine system

Abstract

. 2017. Effects of climate change and anthropogenic modification on a disturbance-dependent species in a large riverine system. Ecosphere 8(1):e01653. 10. 1002/ecs2.1653 Abstract. Humans have altered nearly every natural disturbance regime on the planet through climate and land-use change, and in many instances, these processes may have interacting effects. For example, projected shifts in temperature and precipitation will likely influence disturbance regimes already affected by anthropogenic fire suppression or river impoundments. Understanding how disturbance-dependent species respond to complex and interacting environmental changes is important for conservation efforts. Using field-based demographic and movement rates, we conducted a metapopulation viability analysis for piping plovers (Charadrius melodus), a threatened disturbance-dependent species, along the Missouri and Platte rivers in the Great Plains of North America. Our aim was to better understand current and projected future metapopulation dynamics given that natural disturbances (flooding or high-flow events) have been greatly reduced by river impoundments and that climate change could further alter the disturbance regime. Although metapopulation abundance has been substantially reduced under the current suppressed disturbance regime (high-flow return interval~20 yr), it could grow if the frequency of high-flow events increases as predicted under likely climate change scenarios. We found that a four-year return interval would maximize metapopulation abundance, and all subpopulations in the metapopulation would act as sources at a return interval of 15 yr or less. Regardless of disturbance frequency, the presence of even a small, stable source subpopulation buffered the metapopulation and sustained a low metapopulation extinction risk. Therefore, climate change could have positive effects in ecosystems where disturbances have been anthropogenically suppressed when climatic shifts move disturbance regimes toward more historical patterns. Furthermore, stable source populations, even if unintentionally maintained through anthropogenic activities, may be critical for the persistence of metapopulations of early-successional species under both suppressed disturbance regimes and disturbance regimes where climate change has further altered disturbance frequency or scope.

Demographic response of Piping Plovers suggests that engineered habitat restoration is no match for natural riverine processes

“…Breeding habitat away from river systems may be especially important following flood events (Catlin et el. 2016, Roche et al 2016, Zeigler et al 2017. Similarly, in Saskatchewan, Roche et al (2012) found that Piping Plovers were more likely to disperse from a breeding area when they experienced flooding and low reproductive success in the previous year.…”

Why are monarch butterflies declining in the West? Understanding the importance of multiple correlated drivers

“…, Zeigler et al. ). An important challenge for conservation biologists is to use such environmental data to evaluate hypothesized drivers of population declines in ways that neither overstate nor understate confidence in the causal relationships.…”

Irruptions: evidence for breeding season habitat limitation in Piping Plover (Charadrius melodus)

“…In general, plover habitat comprises sparsely vegetated or open dry sand or gravel for nesting and moist sand for foraging (Burger 1987, Elliott-Smith and Haig 2004, Fraser et al 2005. If breeding habitats are not periodically disturbed by storms, floods, or human interventions, vegetation can quickly overcome sandy habitats and render them unavailable for plovers (Gieder et al 2014, Zeigler et al 2017. Habitat loss on the Atlantic Coast of the United States has been attributed to increased development.…”