Effects of climate change on horticultural plants and horticultural practices in Hungary.

Abstract

Probable effects of climate change on Hungarian horticulture and possible responses to those effects are summarized in this review. The importance of these questions is emphasized by the complexity of the relationship between climate and horticultural crops. Horticultural production is influenced by climate in the following ways: * climate is an important part of local environmental conditions; * it is a system of driving environmental factors: climate permanently influences vital processes of plants; and * it is a system of risk factors: horticultural plants can suffer significant damage caused by extreme meteorological events. Climate change is a realistic possibility nowadays, but there are a lot of open questions concerning the scenarios. An essential element of uncertainty in research concerning climate change is the lack of precise definition of the difference between climatic variability and climate change. This is one of the fundamental reasons why the risk associated with the current warming tendency is a hotly debated question. However, there is no question that (quite apart from the different interpretations of anomalies) climate change is an environmental problem of great importance and a societal response cannot be delayed because of any uncertainties. The response includes mitigation of greenhouse gas concentration and assessment of expected changes as well as their effects, which may help adaptation. There is no generally accepted prescription for adaptation. Climate change occurs locally, and the changes could be entirely different in different regions of the Earth. In addition, the impacts of changes on horticultural crops depend on species, varieties and strains. Nevertheless, exchange of different experiences among regions and countries may be useful, because it can help local efforts of adaptation. Hungarian horticultural production probably would be more influenced by more frequent extreme meteorological conditions than by rising temperature. This tendency seems to be basically unfavourable. Whereas a warmer climate may even exert a beneficial effect on harvest prospects, extreme weather events will decrease yields. For this reason, crop security would become the prime focus of the horticultural sector.