Effects of Climate Change on Burn Probability of Forests in Daxing’anling

Tian, Xin; Cui, Wei; Shu, Li; Zong, Xie

doi:10.3390/f10080611

Cited by 6 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 41 publications

(45 reference statements)

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“…The fire occurrence shows a lagged trend with surface pressure. This region is experiencing a trend of decreasing precipitation accompanied by increasing temperature, which is in line with a previous study [109]. The fluctuating trend of increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation, in recent years, also indicates that the climate stability of the study area is weakening.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Joint Analysis of Lightning-Induced Forest Fire and Surface Influence Factors in the Great Xing’an Range

Zhang

Homayouni

Yao

et al. 2022

Forests

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For several decades, warming-induced fires have been widespread in many forest systems. A forest fire could be a potential indicator, since the Great Xing’an Range is susceptible to global climate changes and frequent extreme events. This region has a relatively integrated forest community structure. This paper investigated 35 factors to explore how natural conditions affect fire scale. We analyzed the fire spatiotemporal distribution, by combining the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform and historical records, and then reconstructed the fire-prone climate conditions. We used an exploratory model to minimize the climate factors and a geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model to predict regional large-scale lightning fire occurrence. The main results are (1) Lightning fire occurrence increased during the past four decades, and the regional fire season starts from the spring (May to June). (2) The time of occurrence of lightning fires had a strong correlation with the occurrence density. (3) The main natural factors affecting a fire-affected area are air moisture content, topographic slope, maximum surface air temperature, wind direction, and surface atmospheric pressure. The regional climate can be characterized that the prevailing southeastern wind bringing lots of precipitation and strong surface pressure, combined with the regional periodic lightning weather and irregular high temperatures, forming fire-prone weather. The abnormal soil water content in the spring led to vegetation growth and increased fuel storage. The low air water content and long-term water deficit made the local air dry. Lightning strikes are an influential factor in fire frequency, while climatic conditions shape the fire-affected areas. (4) The seven days of pre-fire data are more accurate for studying lightning fire occurrence. The GTWR model showed the best fitness among the four models. Fire-prone areas showed a trend of increasing from south to north. In the future, lightning fires will likely occur in this region’s north and east. Our work would promote the local forest fire policy-making process.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Joint Analysis of Lightning-Induced Forest Fire and Surface Influence Factors in the Great Xing’an Range

Zhang

Homayouni

Yao

et al. 2022

Forests

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An optimal firebreak design for the boreal forest of China

Zong

Tian

Wang

2021

Science of The Total Environment

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The process of vegetation recovery and burn probability changes in post-burn boreal forests in northeast China

Zong

Tian

2022

Int. J. Wildland Fire

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Background Repeated fires may slow the recovery process in burned areas, thus affecting ecological succession. Aims This paper explores the changes in likelihood of reburn and fire behaviours in various phases of vegetation recovery. Methods We used field survey data and the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) to assess vegetation recovery in boreal forests after fires at both landscape and field scales. The Burn-P3 model was used to simulate burn probability and fire behaviours and then evaluate the overall fire likelihood and potential behaviours in different recovery phases. Key results Vegetation began to recover in most burned areas within the first year after fire and reached prefire levels after 10–15 years of recovery. Vegetation in areas with steep slopes (>25°) and thin soil had not recovered after 20 years, accounting for 0.3% of the total burned area. The average burn probability and fire behaviour indices of the study area decreased significantly after fire owing to lower fuel levels. Conclusions Burned areas with steep slopes and thin soil showed slower recovery rates after fire. The recovered vegetation in most burned areas still had low burn likelihood and fire behaviours 20 years post burn. Implications Artificial regeneration and fire prevention should be carried out at highly vulnerable sites for rehabilitating forest ecosystems.

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Effects of Climate Change on Burn Probability of Forests in Daxing’anling

Cited by 6 publications

References 41 publications

Joint Analysis of Lightning-Induced Forest Fire and Surface Influence Factors in the Great Xing’an Range

Joint Analysis of Lightning-Induced Forest Fire and Surface Influence Factors in the Great Xing’an Range

An optimal firebreak design for the boreal forest of China

The process of vegetation recovery and burn probability changes in post-burn boreal forests in northeast China

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