Effects of climate change on cultivation patterns of spring maize and its climatic suitability in Northeast China

Jun, Zhao; Guo, Jianping; Xu, Yinlong; Mu, Jia

doi:10.1016/j.agee.2015.01.013

Cited by 56 publications

(47 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…S1c), suggesting that decreases in Yp and Ypw should be ascribed to increase in temperature and particularly decrease in solar radiation. By contrast, in northern, northeastern and southeastern China, Yp and Ypw increased due to increases in solar radiation and temperature, which improved light and heat resources in these regions (Chen et al, 2011b;Wang et al, 2014b;Zhao et al, 2014). Changes in precipitation were quite small and insignificant, which had less impact on trends in Ypw.…”

Section: Ygp Is Shrinking Due To the Relative Changes In Ya And Ypmentioning

confidence: 96%

Temporal and spatial changes of maize yield potentials and yield gaps in the past three decades in China

Tao

Zhang

et al. 2015

Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment

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A B S T R A C TThe precise spatially explicit knowledge about crop yield potentials and yield gaps is essential to guide sustainable intensification of agriculture. In this study, the maize yield potentials from 1980 to 2008 across the major maize production regions of China were firstly estimated by county using ensemble simulation of a well-validated large scale crop model, i.e., MCWLA-Maize model. Then, the temporal and spatial patterns of maize yield potentials and yield gaps during 1980-2008 were presented and analyzed. The results showed that maize yields became stagnated at 32.4% of maize-growing areas during the period. In the major maize production regions, i.e., northeastern China, the North China Plain (NCP) and southwestern China, yield gap percentages were generally less than 40% and particularly less than 20% in some areas. By contrast, in northern and southern China, where actual yields were relatively lower, yield gap percentages were generally larger than 40%. The areas with yield gap percentages less than 20% and less than 40% accounted for 8.2% and 27.6% of maize-growing areas, respectively. During the period, yield potentials decreased in the NCP and southwestern China due to increase in temperature and decrease in solar radiation; by contrast, increased in northern, northeastern and southeastern China due to increases in both temperature and solar radiation. Yield gap percentages decreased generally by $~2% per year across the major maize production regions, although increased in some areas in northern and northeastern China. The shrinking of yield gap was due to increases in actual yields and decreases in yield potentials in the NCP and southwestern China; and due to larger increases in actual yields than in yield potentials in northeastern and southeastern China. The results highlight the importance of sustainable intensification of agriculture to close yield gaps, as well as breeding new cultivars to increase yield potentials, to meet the increasing food demand.

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Section: Ygp Is Shrinking Due To the Relative Changes In Ya And Ypmentioning

confidence: 96%

Temporal and spatial changes of maize yield potentials and yield gaps in the past three decades in China

Tao

Zhang

et al. 2015

Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment

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“…Mean annual precipitation is 250-700 mm, up to 80 % of which takes place from May to September. The frostfree period is 90-160 days (Huang et al 1998;Wang et al 2011a;Zhao et al 2015).…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the conservation effectiveness of wetland protected areas in Northeast China

Wang

et al. 2015

Wetlands Ecol Manage

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The evaluation of conservation effectiveness for wetland protected areas (WPAs) is essential to underpin knowledge-based conservation policies and funding decisions by government and managers. In this paper, the conservation effectiveness for 28 WPAs in Northeast China from 2000 to 2012 was quantitatively evaluated using landsat thematic mapper image data and a maximum entropy model (Maxent). The spatial distribution of conservation effectiveness and the influence of human activities on conservation effectiveness were determined by combining a landscape development intensity (LDI) index and spatial analysis in a geographical information system. The results showed that the natural wetland area of all WPAs in Northeast China declined by 11.5 % and the conservation effectiveness of most of these WPAs decreased between 2000 and 2012. A significant negative correlation between the LDI index and conservation effectiveness (r = -0.824, p \ 0.01) suggested that human activities were responsible for the low conservation effectiveness of WPAs. The WPAs with the high conservation effectiveness were mainly located in the Da-Xing'an and Xiao-Xing'an Mountains, where anthropogenic activities were limited. The reduction in the conservation effectiveness of WPAs in the Songnen and Sanjiang Plains, which showed the most degradation, was due to conversion of wetlands to croplands. This research offers an efficient and effective method to evaluate the conservation effectiveness of WPAs. The results of this study will inform future ecological conservation and management of WPAs in China.

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“…Furthermore, NEC has undergone signifi cant climate change over the past 50 yr (Liu et al, 2009) because it is located at a relatively high latitude in China (Trenberth et al, 2007). Previous research has indicated that air temperature in this region has increased at a rate of 0.38°C per decade over the past 50 yr (Liu et al, 2009), and agriculture is vulnerable to the great variability in climate (Zhao et al, 2015). Th us it is of great importance to evaluate the future impacts of climate change on maize yield in NEC for regional or even national food security.…”

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confidence: 99%

Potential Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation on Maize in Northeast China

Lin

Zhu

et al. 2017

Agronomy Journal

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Northeast China (NEC) is an important region for maize (Zea mays L.) production in China, and is the country's most signifi cant commercial food base. However, NEC is also one of the areas that are most signifi cantly aff ected by climate change in this country. Maize is sensitive to climatic changes, and to develop eff ective strategies for guaranteeing regional food security, it is essential to understand the mechanisms of the impacts of climate change and the eff ectiveness of adaptation measures in NEC. In this study, the Crop-Environment Resource Synthesis (CERES)-Maize v4.5 model, coupled with newly released data for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, was applied to simulate maize yields for future periods (2020s, 2050s, and 2080s) and to estimate the eff ect of CO 2 fertilization and the eff ectiveness of three typical adaptation measures for maize production in NEC. Th e results indicated a trend of a continuing decline in maize yield for both RCP scenarios, and the decrease in maize yield under RCP8.5 was predicted to be greater than that under RCP4.5. Th e eff ect of CO 2 fertilization was forecast to be too small to off set the negative impacts of climate change. Th ree adaptation measures-changing planting dates, switching to later-maturing cultivars, and breeding new cultivars with high thermal time requirements-could mitigate negative climate change impacts to varying degrees; switching cultivars may exert the most signifi cant eff ect on increasing maize yields. Core Ideas• Th e CERES-Maize model was applied to estimate the impacts of climate change under RCP scenarios and the eff ectiveness of three typical adaptation measures for maize production in Northeast China.• Maize yield would decline under the future climatic conditions if no adaptation measures were adopted.• Changing planting dates, switching to later-maturing cultivars and breeding new cultivars could mitigate the negative impacts of climate change to varying degrees.

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Effects of climate change on cultivation patterns of spring maize and its climatic suitability in Northeast China

Cited by 56 publications

References 27 publications

Temporal and spatial changes of maize yield potentials and yield gaps in the past three decades in China

Temporal and spatial changes of maize yield potentials and yield gaps in the past three decades in China

Assessing the conservation effectiveness of wetland protected areas in Northeast China

Potential Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation on Maize in Northeast China

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