Potential Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation on Maize in Northeast China

Abstract

Northeast China (NEC) is an important region for maize (Zea mays L.) production in China, and is the country's most signifi cant commercial food base. However, NEC is also one of the areas that are most signifi cantly aff ected by climate change in this country. Maize is sensitive to climatic changes, and to develop eff ective strategies for guaranteeing regional food security, it is essential to understand the mechanisms of the impacts of climate change and the eff ectiveness of adaptation measures in NEC. In this study, the Crop-Environment Resource Synthesis (CERES)-Maize v4.5 model, coupled with newly released data for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, was applied to simulate maize yields for future periods (2020s, 2050s, and 2080s) and to estimate the eff ect of CO 2 fertilization and the eff ectiveness of three typical adaptation measures for maize production in NEC. Th e results indicated a trend of a continuing decline in maize yield for both RCP scenarios, and the decrease in maize yield under RCP8.5 was predicted to be greater than that under RCP4.5. Th e eff ect of CO 2 fertilization was forecast to be too small to off set the negative impacts of climate change. Th ree adaptation measures-changing planting dates, switching to later-maturing cultivars, and breeding new cultivars with high thermal time requirements-could mitigate negative climate change impacts to varying degrees; switching cultivars may exert the most signifi cant eff ect on increasing maize yields. Core Ideas• Th e CERES-Maize model was applied to estimate the impacts of climate change under RCP scenarios and the eff ectiveness of three typical adaptation measures for maize production in Northeast China.• Maize yield would decline under the future climatic conditions if no adaptation measures were adopted.• Changing planting dates, switching to later-maturing cultivars and breeding new cultivars could mitigate the negative impacts of climate change to varying degrees.

Optimizing sowing window and cultivar choice can boost China’s maize yield under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

“…At the same time, future maize yields in regions V-VI would decrease as a result of the decline in precipitation and solar radiation due to warming temperatures accelerating growth phases. These findings are consistent with the results of previous studies in all maize planting regions except Northwest China, where other studies found that future maize yields would decrease (Xiong et al 2007, Tao and Zhang 2011, Kang et al 2014, Lin et al 2017, Liang et al 2018. This inconsistency is possibly Figure 5.…”

Modelling Impacts of Climate Change on Maize (<i>Zea mays</i> L.) Growth and Productivity: A Review of Models, Outputs and Limitations

“…They also reported that by combining cultivar and the best planting date, they simulated an increase in production by 15%. Similarly, a study in Northern China by Lin et al (2017) showed that maize yields would decrease by 6.9% and increase by 15.9% if planting days were advanced or delayed by 15 days respectively. Another notable example is by Parent et al (2018) who, in their study using APSIM model and six field experiments in South and Northern Europe projected an increase of 4% -7% in grain production through adaptation that involves genetic variability of flowering during the crop cycle.…”

“…The major adaptation strategies suggested for consideration on crop models include breeding new cultivars, proper irrigation and soil nutrient management (Bannayan, Paymard, & Ashraf, 2016;Lin et al, 2017;Moradi, Koocheki, Mahallati, & Mansoori, 2013;Rurinda et al, 2015;.…”

“…In the paper, we consider maize (Zea mays L.) since it is a major crop grown in most parts of the world to provide food and nutritional security for the vulnerable populations (Tesfaye et al, 2015). Like other crops, the main challenge that affects maize growth and development is the changing weather pattern, leading to intra-seasonal changes in yield (Lin et al, 2017). Other factors are variable soil properties, crop agronomic management practices including planting, fertilizer application, tillage among others (Ahmed et al, 2018;Lin et al, 2017;Ramirez-Cabral, Kumar, & Shabani, 2017;Tesfaye et al, 2015;Tesfaye et al, 2018).…”

“…Like other crops, the main challenge that affects maize growth and development is the changing weather pattern, leading to intra-seasonal changes in yield (Lin et al, 2017). Other factors are variable soil properties, crop agronomic management practices including planting, fertilizer application, tillage among others (Ahmed et al, 2018;Lin et al, 2017;Ramirez-Cabral, Kumar, & Shabani, 2017;Tesfaye et al, 2015;Tesfaye et al, 2018). We believe that analysing the performance of various maize simulation models is vital for addressing the challenges posed by climate change.…”