Effects of Climate Change on Extreme Low-Flows in Small Lowland Tributaries in the Skagit River Basin

Stumbaugh, Matt R.; Hamlet, Alan F.

doi:10.3955/046.090.0105

Cited by 9 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…Greater flood magnitude‐frequency in those four rivers began during a mid‐1970s PDO phase shift but continued thereafter and is evident in regional hydrologic records (cf. Stumbaugh & Hamlet, 2016). Recent widening of the upper Quinault River is consistent with lacustrine evidence of more‐frequent floods in the past 50 years (section 3.2; Smith et al, 2019).…”

Section: Observed Changes To Sedimentary and Geomorphic Processes: Anmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Reduction of ice and snow has shifted the seasonality of stream discharge (Birsan et al, 2005;Chesnokova et al, 2020;Frans et al, 2016Frans et al, , 2018Lane & Nienow, 2019;Micheletti & Lane, 2016;Riedel et al, 2015). Warmer temperatures and decreased snowfall have been driving earlier spring runoff in the western United States since the mid-twentieth century (Hidalgo et al, 2009) and causing lower late-summer flows (Das et al, 2011;Kormos et al, 2016;Stumbaugh & Hamlet, 2016). Storm precipitation shifting from snow to rain has increased streamflow peaks significantly in the western United States since 1980 (Davenport et al, 2019).…”

Section: Reduction Of Snow and Icementioning

confidence: 99%

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Geomorphic and Sedimentary Effects of Modern Climate Change: Current and Anticipated Future Conditions in the Western United States

East

Sankey

2020

Reviews of Geophysics

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Hydroclimatic changes associated with global warming over the past 50 years have been documented widely, but physical landscape responses are poorly understood thus far. Detecting sedimentary and geomorphic signals of modern climate change presents challenges owing to short record lengths, difficulty resolving signals in stochastic natural systems, influences of land use and tectonic activity, long-lasting effects of individual extreme events, and variable connectivity in sediment-routing systems. We review existing literature to investigate the nature and extent of sedimentary and geomorphic responses to modern climate change, focusing on the western United States, a region with generally high relief and high sediment yield likely to be sensitive to climatic forcing. Based on fundamental geomorphic theory and empirical evidence from other regions, we anticipate climate-driven changes to slope stability, watershed sediment yields, fluvial morphology, and aeolian sediment mobilization in the western United States. We find evidence for recent climate-driven changes to slope stability and increased aeolian dune and dust activity, whereas changes in sediment yields and fluvial morphology have been linked more commonly to nonclimatic drivers thus far. Detecting effects of climate change will require better understanding how landscape response scales with disturbance, how lag times and hysteresis operate within sedimentary systems, and how to distinguish the relative influence and feedbacks of superimposed disturbances. The ability to constrain geomorphic and sedimentary response to rapidly progressing climate change has widespread implications for human health and safety, infrastructure, water security, economics, and ecosystem resilience. Plain Language Summary Climatic changes associated with global warming over the past 50 years have been documented widely, but physical landscape responses are poorly understood. Detecting landscape signals of modern climate change is difficult for many reasons but is important because these problems relate closely to human health and safety, infrastructure, water security, and ecosystems. We reviewed the scientific literature to investigate landscape responses to modern climate change in the western United States, focusing on slope failures, watershed sediment output, river shape, and wind-blown sediment. Some changes to slope stability and wind-blown sediment are evident, whereas factors other than climate have been more important thus far in controlling sediment output and river shape. We identify ways in which more information is needed from many more places, in the western United States and globally, to understand landscape response to ongoing climate change.

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Section: Observed Changes To Sedimentary and Geomorphic Processes: Anmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Reduction Of Snow and Icementioning

confidence: 99%

Geomorphic and Sedimentary Effects of Modern Climate Change: Current and Anticipated Future Conditions in the Western United States

East

Sankey

2020

Reviews of Geophysics

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“…Mixed results have been reported in the global literature regarding the impacts of climate change on low flows, with some studies reporting an increase in low flows [27][28][29][30][31] whereas other studies have predicted a decrease in low flows [32][33][34][35][36][37][38] . For example, Mozayyan et al [39] conducted a climate change impact study on low flows in Iran based on the A2 [40] emission scenario and reported that minimum 7-day low flow with various return periods would be relatively higher compared to the baseline period in all subwatersheds.…”

Section: Introduction mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Similarly, Stumbaugh [37] projected that future low-flows in Skagit River Basin Canada would decrease by 5%-20%. Dang et al [38] conducted a study in central Vietnam using various GCMs and regional models and reported decreased low flows due to future climate change.…”

Section: Introduction mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impact of global climate change on stream low flows: A case study of the great Miami river watershed, Ohio, USA

Shrestha

Sharma

Gupta

et al. 2019

International Journal of Agricultural and Biological Engineering

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Climate change will profoundly affect hydrological processes at various temporal and spatial scales. This study is focused on assessing the alteration of water resources availability and low flows frequencies driven by changing climates in different time periods of the 21 st century. This study evaluates the adaptability of prevailing Global Circulation Models (GCMs) on a particular watershed through streamflow regimes. This analysis was conducted in the Great Miami River Watershed, Ohio by analyzing historical and future simulated streamflow using 10 climate model outputs and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The climate change scenarios, consisting of ten downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparision Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models in combination with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were selected based on the correlation between observed records and model outputs. Streamflow for three future periods, 2016-2043, 2044-2071 and 2072-2099, were independently analyzed and compared with the baseline period . Results from the average of ten models projected that 7-day low flows in the watershed would increase by 19% in the 21 st century under both RCPs. This trend was also consistent for both hydrological (7Q10, 1Q10) and biological low flow statistics (4B3, 1B3). Similarly, average annual flow and monthly flows would also increase in future periods, especially in the summer. The flows simulated by SWAT in response to the majority of climate model projections showed a consistent increase in low flow patterns. However, the flow estimates using the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM-LR) climate output resulted in the biological based low flows (4B3, 1B3) decreasing by 22.5% and 33.4% under RCP 4.5 and 56.9% and 63.7% under RCP 8.5, respectively, in the future when compared to the baseline period. Regardless, the low flow ensemble from the 10 climate models for the 21 st century seemed to be slightly higher than that of historical low flows.

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Projected changes in future climate over the Midwest and Great Lakes region using downscaled CMIP5 ensembles

Byun

Hamlet

2018

Intl Journal of Climatology

Self Cite

105

113

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Despite an increasing body of evidence that climate change is having a significant impact on different types of biogeophysical systems in the Midwest and Great Lakes region, there still remain critical questions of how quickly and how much climate will be altered over this region in the future. This study provides future daily temperature and precipitation at high resolution (1/16°) which can be used in many regional impact assessments, and also analyses the projected mean and extreme climate events.

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Effects of Climate Change on Extreme Low-Flows in Small Lowland Tributaries in the Skagit River Basin

Cited by 9 publications

References 12 publications

Geomorphic and Sedimentary Effects of Modern Climate Change: Current and Anticipated Future Conditions in the Western United States

Geomorphic and Sedimentary Effects of Modern Climate Change: Current and Anticipated Future Conditions in the Western United States

Impact of global climate change on stream low flows: A case study of the great Miami river watershed, Ohio, USA

Projected changes in future climate over the Midwest and Great Lakes region using downscaled CMIP5 ensembles

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