Commentary
BRCA1/2 mutations, fertility and the grandmother effectVarious mutations in the 'breast cancer genes' BRCA1 and BRCA2 increase the lifetime risks of developing breast and ovarian cancers to high levels [1,2]. Because these cancers mostly develop after the cessation of reproductionthat is, after menopause-the responsible alleles may be selectively neutral, being neither selected for or against. However, there is some risk of developing these cancers before menopause, and the moderate negative selection that this generates, together with the recurrence of the alleles due to mutation, has been used to explain the frequency of BRCA1 mutations of 1 in 3000 women in the USA [3]. However, a recent study showing that BRCA1/ 2 mutations increase female fertility (number of children born) by nearly 50 per cent [4] demands a reanalysis of the selection operating on these alleles. Smith et al.[4] used as their main source of data the Utah Population Database, which identifies putative obligate carriers of BRCA1/2 mutations based on direct testing of descendants. They show that carriers born before 1930, who would not have used modern contraceptives in their mid-thirties, and who lived until age 45 (thereby completing their reproductive period), had nearly two more children than age-matched controls. After statistically controlling for birth year, age at first birth, age at marriage, the number of offspring that died as children and religious affiliation, carriers had an average of 1.91 more children than controls. For women born during 1930 -1974, carriers had 0.61 more children than controls, the smaller (but still statistically significant) difference being presumably due to modern methods of birth control. The increased fertility of carriers was due to shorter birth intervals and a longer reproductive tenure.These findings are extremely interesting for two reasons. First, BRCA1 and BRCA2 are among very few genes for which naturally occurring mutations cause a clear increase in reproduction early in life at a cost of increased mortality late in life, and the best example of these in humans [5]. The trade-off is predicted by one of the two main evolutionary theories of ageing. Both theories follow from the fact that the cumulative probability of death necessarily increases with age even in the absence of senescence (that is, with a constant rate of mortality) [6]. This makes selection weaker at later ages because individuals have a lower probability of being alive at those ages. Consequently, deleterious mutations whose effects are expressed only at later ages will accumulate, resulting in senescence, a scenario known as the mutation accumulation theory [6]. Following the same logic, the antagonistic pleiotropy theory of senescence states that any allele that increases early fertility (or survival) even at the expense of later survival will be favoured by selection [7]. Therefore, the surprising trade-off between early fertility and late survival reported for BRCA1/2 mutations is strong confirmation of the antag...