Effects of interdecadal climate variability on the oceanic ecosystems of the NE Pacific

Francis, Robert C.; Hare, Steven R.; Hollowed, Anne B.; Wooster, Warren S.

doi:10.1046/j.1365-2419.1998.00052.x

Cited by 381 publications

(259 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…Often the ecosystem response to these multiple pressures is nonlinear, which may lead to unexpected behavior by the ecological system (deYoung et al 2008) and to sudden, ecosystem-wide shifts, i.e., regime shifts (Francis et al 1998, Lees et al 2006, Beaugrand et al 2008, Kirby et al 2009, Alheit and Bakun 2010. There is little doubt that, in the future, the pressure on marine systems may increase due to acceleration of climate-induced changes thatsynergistically to other human and natural processes-affect the ecosystem dynamics, with major consequences for the provision of ecosystem services (Philippart et al 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Past and future challenges in managing European seas

Blenckner¹,

Kannen²,

Barausse³

et al. 2015

E&S

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ABSTRACT. Marine environments have undergone large-scale changes in recent decades as a result of multiple anthropogenic pressures, such as overfishing, eutrophication, habitat fragmentation, etc., causing often nonlinear ecosystem responses. At the same time, management institutions lack the appropriate measures to address these abrupt transformations. We focus on existing examples from social-ecological systems of European seas that can be used to inform and advise future management. Examples from the Black Sea and the Baltic Sea on long-term ecosystem changes caused by eutrophication and fisheries, as well as changes in management institutions, illustrate nonlinear dynamics in social-ecological systems. Furthermore, we present two major future challenges, i.e., climate change and energy intensification, that could further increase the potential for nonlinear changes in the near future. Practical tools to address these challenges are presented, such as ensuring learning, flexibility, and networking in decision-making processes across sectors and scales. A combination of risk analysis with a scenario-planning approach might help to identify the risks of ecosystem changes early on and may frame societal changes to inform decision-making structures to proactively prevent drastic surprises in European seas.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Past and future challenges in managing European seas

Blenckner¹,

Kannen²,

Barausse³

et al. 2015

E&S

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“…Indices of winter atmospheric and oceanic conditions, in conjunction with other parameters of ecosystems, have been used to identify shifts in climatic forcing and ecosystem response at decadal time scales (e.g., Trenberth and Hurrell, 1995;Mantua et al, 1997;Francis et al, 1998;Springer, 1998;Hare and Mantua, 2000;McFarlane et al, 2000;Hollowed et al, 2001). Two of these so-called ''regime shifts'' have been identified in the past 30 years.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change and control of the southeastern Bering Sea pelagic ecosystem

Hunt

Stabeno

Walters

et al. 2002

Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography

501

385

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We propose a new hypothesis, the Oscillating Control Hypothesis (OCH), which predicts that pelagic ecosystem function in the southeastern Bering Sea will alternate between primarily bottom-up control in cold regimes and primarily top-down control in warm regimes. The timing of spring primary production is determined predominately by the timing of ice retreat. Late ice retreat (late March or later) leads to an early, ice-associated bloom in cold water (e.g., 1995, 1997, 1999), whereas no ice, or early ice retreat before mid-March, leads to an open-water bloom in May or June in warm water (e.g., 1996, 1998, 2000). Zooplankton populations are not closely coupled to the spring bloom, but are sensitive to water temperature. In years when the spring bloom occurs in cold water, low temperatures limit the production of zooplankton, the survival of larval/juvenile fish, and their recruitment into the populations of species of large piscivorous fish, such as walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma), Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) and arrowtooth flounder (Atheresthes stomias). When continued over decadal scales, this will lead to bottom-up limitation and a decreased biomass of piscivorous fish. Alternatively, in periods when the bloom occurs in warm water, zooplankton populations should grow rapidly, providing plentiful prey for larval and juvenile fish. Abundant zooplankton will support strong recruitment of fish and will lead to abundant predatory fish that control forage fish, including, in the case of pollock, their own juveniles. Piscivorous marine birds and pinnipeds may achieve higher production of young and survival in cold regimes, when there is less competition from large piscivorous fish for coldwater forage fish such as capelin (Mallotus villosus). Piscivorous seabirds and pinnipeds also may be expected to have high productivity in periods of transition from cold regimes to warm regimes, when young of large predatory species of fish are numerous enough to provide forage. The OCH predicts that the ability of large predatory fish populations to sustain fishing pressure will vary between warm and cold regimes.The OCH points to the importance of the timing of ice retreat and water temperatures during the spring bloom for the productivity of zooplankton, and the degree and direction of coupling between zooplankton and forage fish. in the biomass of large piscivorous fish and a concurrent decline in the biomass of forage fish, including age-1 walleye pollock, particularly over the southern portion of the shelf. Populations of northern fur seals (Callorhinus ursinus) and seabirds such as kittiwakes (Rissa spp.) at the Pribilof Islands have declined, most probably in response to a diminished prey base. The available evidence suggests that these changes are unlikely the result of a decrease in total annual new primary production, though the possibility of reduced post-bloom production during summer remains. An ecosystem approach to management of the Bering Sea and its fisheries is of great importance if all o...

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“…There were likely four interdecadal regimes in the Northeast Pacific in the last century shifting between cold and warm states in the California Current: 1900-1924, 1925-1946, 1947-1976(Mantua et al 1997, Francis et al 1998, Peterson and Schwing 2003. Another shift was reported in 1989 (Mantua and Hare 2002), but it was not accompanied by a persistent change in plankton production observed since 1999 (Peterson and Schwing 2003).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…The regime shifts are linked to variations in the position and strength of the Aleutian low-pressure system resulting in large-scale changes in wind patterns and ocean temperature. The two major domains of the Northeast Pacific, the California Current and the Gulf of Alaska, fluctuate out of phase (Mantua et al 1997, Francis et al 1998, Hare et al 1999): when one is productive the other is less productive. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation describes these interdecadal shifts in climate variation Hare 2002, Mantua et al 1997), which Chavez et al (2003) call El Viejo, an excellent contrast to the more frequent El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sandy bottom communities at the end of a cold (1971-1975) and warm (1997-1998) regime in the California Current: impacts of high and low plankton production

et al. 2008

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Abstract. There were highly significant changes in the structure of benthic infaunal communities at the end of the last cold regime (1976) compared to the end of the last warm regime (1999) in the California Current. The warm regime is characterized by much lower plankton production, which we argue is the primary cause of the degraded infaunal community at the end of the warm regime. In 1997-98, we resampled a depth gradient along a subtidal, high-energy sandy beach (6-24m) in Monterey Bay that was sampled for five years at the end of the last cold regime . There was a dramatic decline in the total number species, number of individuals, and biomass by the end of the warm period. There was no overlap in benthic assemblages at all water depths between the decades in either non-metric multidimensional scaling ordination or cluster analysis. In the 1970s, the community dominants in the shallow crustacean zone, centered in 9 m, were pericarid crustaceans, including predacious phoxocephilid amphipods, haustoriid amphipods, and ostracods, which all live in the sediment. The amphipods, in particular, are well adapted to burrowing in sand. The numerical dominants in the deeper polychaete zone (18-24m) were large, sedentary polychaete worms. The largest was a tube-dwelling predator (Nothria) accounting for most of the biomass. The other was a suspension and surface deposit feeding polychaete worm, Magelona. By the 1990s, the most abundant crustacean was a small, swimming amphipod; and the most abundant polychaetes were small, relatively mobile, and deposit feeding. This trend from large size, sedentary, and suspension feeding to smaller size, higher mobility, and deposit feeding also characterizes infaunal shifts from the food-rich continental shelf into the food-poor deep sea. The dominant polychaetes had more opportunistic life histories, and shallow faunal zones extended into deeper water in the 1990s. If global warming continues, the ongoing cold regime may be less productive and the sandy bottom communities should not develop the species composition and high diversity, abundance, and biomass observed in the 1970s.

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Effects of interdecadal climate variability on the oceanic ecosystems of the NE Pacific

Cited by 381 publications

References 25 publications

Past and future challenges in managing European seas

Past and future challenges in managing European seas

Climate change and control of the southeastern Bering Sea pelagic ecosystem

Sandy bottom communities at the end of a cold (1971-1975) and warm (1997-1998) regime in the California Current: impacts of high and low plankton production

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