Effects of long-term climate change on global building energy expenditures

Clarke, Leon; Eom, Jiyong; Marten, Elke Hodson; Horowitz, Russell; Kyle, Page; Link, Robert; Mignone, Bryan K.; Mundra, Anupriya; Zhou, Yuyu

doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2018.01.003

Cited by 105 publications

(76 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…We have expanded upon previous estimates of water scarcity drivers by quantifying how the coevolution of a dynamic socioeconomic system and changing climate system may alter water scarcity into the future. This has been done by using evolving and differing socioeconomic assumptions that account for changes across all sectors , Graham et al 2018, in combination with considerations for climate impacts to water availability, hydropower expansion (Turner et al 2017), agricultural productivity changes (Rosenzweig et al 2014), and building energy expenditures (Clarke et al 2018). The use of these socioeconomic and climate assumptions in GCAM allow for feedback linkages between these systems, enabling price adjustments and resultant demand changes across sectors when supplies become increasingly depleted.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Humans drive future water scarcity changes across all Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Graham

Hejazi

Chen

et al. 2020

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Future changes in climate and socioeconomic systems will drive both the availability and use of water resources, leading to evolutions in scarcity. The contributions of both systems can be quantified individually to understand the impacts around the world, but also combined to explore how the coevolution of energy-water-land systems affects not only the driver behind water scarcity changes, but how human and climate systems interact in tandem to alter water scarcity. Here we investigate the relative contributions of climate and socioeconomic systems on water scarcity under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways-Representative Concentration Pathways framework. While human systems dominate changes in water scarcity independent of socioeconomic or climate future, the sign of these changes depend particularly on the socioeconomic scenario. Under specific socioeconomic futures, human-driven water scarcity reductions occur in up to 44% of the global land area by the end of the century.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Humans drive future water scarcity changes across all Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Graham

Hejazi

Chen

et al. 2020

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…First, we are only including feedbacks on the terrestrial system. Many other human-Earth system feedbacks are possible, including the effects of climate on energy demand (Clarke et al 2018;Zhou et al 2014), energy supply (Cronin et al 2018), water availability (Strzepek et al 2015;Hejazi et al 2014;Hanasaki et al 2013), income (Burke et al 2015;Woodard et al 2019), behavior (Beckage et al 2018), etc. The inclusion of feedbacks in other systems may result in different effects (Calvin and Bond-Lamberty 2018).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characteristics of human-climate feedbacks differ at different radiative forcing levels

Calvin

Bond‐Lamberty

Jones

et al. 2019

Global and Planetary Change

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The human and Earth systems are intricately linked: climate influences agricultural production, renewable energy potential, and water availability, for example, while anthropogenic emissions from industry and land use change alter temperature and precipitation. Such feedbacks have the potential to significantly alter future climate change. These feedbacks may also exert significant changes on 21 st-century energy, agriculture, land use and carbon cycle projections, but little is known about their possible magnitudes, or about regional and sector dynamics under different forcing scenarios. Here we use an integrated Earth System Model (ESM) featuring bidirectional information exchange between an economically-oriented integrated assessment model and the ESM to examine how human-natural feedbacks operate under high and medium radiative forcing (RF) scenarios. Specifically, we examine the effect of changing land productivity on human systems, and the effect of changing land use/land cover and CO 2 emissions on the Earth system. We find that the effect of coupling differs across radiative forcing levels and across regions, due to differences in the climate signal, human responses to those signals, and regional characteristics. In particular, we find reductions in cropland area due to feedbacks in both the medium and high RF scenarios. In the medium RF scenario, these reductions result in increased area for bioenergy and afforestation and reduced energy system CO 2 emissions, as the carbon price in this scenario incentivizes low carbon energy sources and terrestrial carbon storage; these incentives are absent in the high RF scenario. These differences are key to understanding the possible future evolution pathways of the integrated Earth system in response to 21 st century climate change. Additional models and hypothesis testing are needed to determine exactly when and how bidirectional feedbacks between human and Earth systems should be considered in future assessments.

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“…Future energy demand and supply is usually provided by integrated energy system models. Several energy system models, such as GCAM (Clarke et al, 2008;Collins et al, 2015;Clarke et al, 2018; http://www.globalchange.umd.edu/gcam/), Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE; Alcamo et al, 1996;Braspenning Radu et al, 2016; https://models.pbl.nl/image/index.php/Welcome_to_IMAGE_3.0_Documentation), and Model of Energy Supply Systems…”

Section: The Gcam-china Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic projection of anthropogenic emissions in China: methodology and 2015–2050 emission pathways under a range of socioeconomic, climate policy, and pollution control scenarios

Tong¹,

Cheng²,

Yang³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Abstract. Future trends in air pollution and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for China are of great concern to the community. A set of global scenarios regarding future socioeconomic and climate developments, combining shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) with climate forcing outcomes as described by the representative concentration pathways (RCPs), were created by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Chinese researchers have also developed various emission scenarios by considering detailed local environmental and climate policies. However, a comprehensive scenario set connecting SSP-RCP scenarios with local policies and representing dynamic emission changes under local policies is still missing. In this work, to fill this gap, we developed a dynamic projection model, the Dynamic Projection model for Emissions in China (DPEC), to explore China&#8217;s future anthropogenic emission pathways. The DPEC model is designed to integrate the energy system model, emission inventory model, dynamic projection model, and parameterized scheme of Chinese policies. The model contains two main modules, an energy-model-driven activity rate projection module and a sector-based emission projection module. The activity rate projection module provides the standardized and unified future energy scenarios after reorganizing and refining the outputs from the energy system model. Here we use a new China-focused version of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM-China) to project future energy demand and supply in China under different SSP-RCP scenarios at the provincial level. The emission projection module links a bottom-up emission inventory model, the Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC), to GCAM-China, and accurately tracks the evolution of future combustion/production technologies and control measures under different environmental policies. We developed technology-based turnover models for several key emitting sectors (e.g., coal-fired power plants, key industries, and on-road transportation sectors), which can simulate the dynamic changes in the unit/vehicle fleet turnover process by tracking the lifespan of each unit/vehicle on an annual basis. With the integrated modelling framework, we connected five SSP scenarios (SSP1-5), five RCP scenarios (RCP 8.5, 7.0, 6.0, 4.5, and 2.6), and three pollution control scenarios (business as usual (BAU), enhanced control policy (ECP), and best health effect (BHE)) to produce six combined emission scenarios. With those scenarios, we presented a wide range of China's future emissions to 2050 under different development and policy pathways. We found that, with a combination of strong low-carbon policy and air pollution control policy (i.e., SSP1-26-BHE scenario), emissions of major air pollutants (i.e., SO2, NOx, PM2.5, and NMVOCs) in China will be reduced by 34&#8211;66&#8201;% in 2030 and 58&#8211;87&#8201;% in 2050 compared to 2015. End-of-pipe control measures are more effective for reducing air pollutant emissions before 2030, while low-carbon policy will play more important role for continuous emission reduction until 2050. On contrast, China's emissions will remain high level until 2050 under a reference scenario without active action (i.e., SSP3-70-BAU). Compared to similar scenarios set in the CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6), our estimates of emission ranges are much lower than the estimates from the CMIP6 in 2020/2030, but their emission ranges become similar in the year 2050.

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Effects of long-term climate change on global building energy expenditures

Cited by 105 publications

References 23 publications

Humans drive future water scarcity changes across all Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Humans drive future water scarcity changes across all Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Characteristics of human-climate feedbacks differ at different radiative forcing levels

Dynamic projection of anthropogenic emissions in China: methodology and 2015–2050 emission pathways under a range of socioeconomic, climate policy, and pollution control scenarios

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