Effects of meteorological factors on the incidence of mumps and models for prediction, China

Abstract

Background: Mumps is an acute respiratory infectious disease with obvious regional and seasonal differences. Exploring the impact of climate factors on the incidence of mumps and predicting its incidence trend on this basis could effectively control the outbreak and epidemic of mumps. Methods: Considering the great differences of climate in the vast territory of China, this study divided the Chinese mainland into seven regions according to the administrative planning criteria, data of Mumps were collected from the China Disease Prevention and Control Information System, ARIMA model and ARIMAX model with meteorological factors were established to predict the incidence of mumps. Results: In this study, we found that precipitation, air pressure, temperature, and wind speed had an impact on the incidence of mumps in most regions of China and the incidence of mumps in the north and southwest China was more susceptible to climate factors. Considering meteorological factors, the average relative error of ARIMAX model was 10.87%, which was lower than ARIMA model (15.57%). Conclusions: Meteorology factors were the important factors which can affect the incidence of mumps, ARIMAX model with meteorological factors could better simulate and predict the incidence of mumps in China, which has certain reference value for the prevention and control of mumps.

Analysis of spatial-temporal distribution of notifiable respiratory infectious diseases in Shandong Province, China during 2005–2014

“…The results of the time series of notifiable respiratory infectious diseases indicated that the incidence of notifiable respiratory infectious diseases in Shandong Province has obvious seasonality, with peaking in winter and spring and a few notifiable respiratory infectious diseases in early summer, which may be related to climatic factors [ 25 – 28 ]. In addition, we found that the incidence of measles, tuberculosis and meningococcal meningitis showed a downward trend, and the incidence of influenza A (H1N1) and rubella showed sporadic and have an outbreak trend occasionally.…”

Analysis of Spatial-Temporal Distribution of Respiratory Infectious Diseases in Shandong Province, China During 2005-2014

“…The results of the time series of respiratory infectious diseases indicated that the incidence of respiratory infectious diseases in Shandong Province has obvious seasonality, with peaking in winter and spring and a few respiratory infectious diseases in early summer, which may be related to climatic factors [26][27][28][29]. In addition, we found that the incidence of measles, tuberculosis and meningococcal meningitis showed a downward trend, and the incidence of in uenza A (H1N1) and rubella showed sporadic and have an outbreak trend occasionally.…”

Association between ozone exposure and prevalence of mumps: a time-series study in a Megacity of Southwest China

“…A plenty of studies found that temperature had an effect on prevalence of mumps (Ho et al 2015;Onozuka and Hashizume 2011). A recent study from the western China indicated that precipitation and wind speed also had effect on the prevalence of mumps (Zha et al 2020). Warm and humid weather would promote MuV reproduction and evolution, enhancing the infection risk (Nenna et al 2017).…”