Efficacy Assessment of Z-Score in Selected Sectors of Emerging Economy

Abstract

This study is focused on empirical investigation of the effectiveness of Z-Score Corporate Insolvency Prediction Model on selected industrial sectors of a developing economy. The specific objectives are to assess the efficacy of Z-Score corporate insolvency prediction model on industrial sectors of Agriculture, General Services, Oil Services, Transport & Aviations, Merchandising and Manufacturing of a developing economy and to identify which of these sectors is most susceptible to insolvency diagnoses using Z-score model. Seven hundred financial statements from three hundred and fifty failed companies were analyzed. Z-Score variables for quoted and non-quoted companies were professionally extracted. Univariate and Multivariate Analysis at 5% significant levels were employed in testing of results against formulated null hypotheses. The outcome of the research shows that Z-score is a significant effective tool for predicting corporate failures in emerging economies. It is also found that the predictive ability of Z-Score across Industrial Sectors in a developing economy is significantly different. Z-Score Corporate Insolvency predictive Model is found to be significantly effective for Agriculture, Oil Services and Manufacturing sectors. However, the model is found not to be significantly effective for predicting corporate insolvency of Corporate bodies operating in General Services, Transport & Aviation and Merchandising sectors of a developing economy.

Comparison of Altman's Z - Score Model and Altman's Z''- Score Model on the Sample of Companies Whose Shares Are Included in the Republic of Srpska Stock Exchange Index

“…Altman's Z -Score model was applied to this sample and a significant level of reliability was found in predicting the bankruptcy of Italian companies. Unegbu and Onojah (2013) tested the Z-Score model in selected sectors in developing countries. The research results showed that this model is an important tool for predicting the bankruptcy of corporations from developing countries.…”