We compiled all credible repeated lion surveys and present time series data for 47 lion (Panthera leo) populations. We used a Bayesian state space model to estimate growth rate-λ for each population and summed these into three regional sets to provide conservation-relevant estimates of trends since 1990. We found a striking geographical pattern: African lion populations are declining everywhere, except in four southern countries (Botswana, Namibia, South Africa, and Zimbabwe). Population models indicate a 67% chance that lions in West and Central Africa decline by onehalf, while estimating a 37% chance that lions in East Africa also decline by one-half over two decades. We recommend separate regional assessments of the lion in the World Conservation Union (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species: already recognized as critically endangered in West Africa, our analysis supports listing as regionally endangered in Central and East Africa and least concern in southern Africa. Almost all lion populations that historically exceeded âŒ500 individuals are declining, but lion conservation is successful in southern Africa, in part because of the proliferation of reintroduced lions in small, fenced, intensively managed, and funded reserves. If management budgets for wild lands cannot keep pace with mounting levels of threat, the species may rely increasingly on these southern African areas and may no longer be a flagship species of the once vast natural ecosystems across the rest of the continent.L arge carnivores are generally declining worldwide (1), but trends vary according to geography (2) and the severity of threats posed to humans (3). The African lion (Panthera leo) exemplifies the challenges of carnivore conservation: widespread habitat loss (4), extensive prey base depletion (5-7), indiscriminate retaliatory or preemptive killing to protect humans and their livestock (8-10), poorly regulated sport hunting (11-18), and demand for traditional African and Chinese medicines (19). Although lions are relatively well-studied compared with most large felids, regional-scale population estimates remain scant across much of its range (20), and population surveys are generally repeated at irregular intervals because of the inherent difficulty of counting lions (21, 22) and shortage of funds for systematic surveys. No reliable data are available for Angola, Central African Republic, Somalia, South Sudan, and Ethiopia. Furthermore, systematic surveys are absent from large areas of potential lion habitat in countries with a rich tradition of wildlife research, such as Zambia and Tanzania.With widespread declines in many reserves (23) and rapid deterioration of the lion's status in a substantial portion of the species' range (24), there is growing concern that lion numbers may be declining rapidly, leading to the lion's consideration for listing as threatened or endangered on the US Endangered Species Act. The lion is currently listed as vulnerable on the World Conservation Union (IUCN) Red List and would be considered endangered i...