Egeson's (George's) transtridecadal weather cycling and sunspots

Abstract

In the late 19th century, Charles Egeson, a map compiler at the Sydney Observatory, carried out some of the earliest research on climatic cycles, linking them to about 33-year cycles in solar activity, and predicted that a devastating drought would strike Australia at the turn of the 20th century. Eduard Brückner and William J. S. Lockyer, who, like Egeson, found similar cycles, with notable exceptions, are also, like the map compiler, mostly forgotten. But the transtridecadal cycles are important in human physiology, economics and other affairs and are particularly pertinent to ongoing discusions of climate change. Egeson’s publication of daily weather reports preceded those officially recorded. Their publication led to clashes with his superiors and his personal life was marked by run-ins with the law and, possibly, an implied, but not proven, confinement in an insane asylum and premature death. We here track what little is known of Egeson’s life and of his bucking of the conventional scientific wisdom of his time with tragic results.

Some Near- and Far-Environmental Effects on Human Health and Disease with a Focus on the Cardiovascular System

“…Our analysis of Brückner's data taken off his published figure estimated the period of temperature to be 36.8 (95% CI: 32.6, 41.0) years and that of rainfall to be 33.6 (95% CI: 29.9, 37.4) years [40]. Similar results apply to other variables recorded by Brückner: 40.6 (95% CI: 37.4, 43.9) years for the frequency of cold winters; 35.8 (95% CI: 31.4, 40.2) years for the duration of ice-free rivers; and 36.3 (95% CI: 33.3, 39.3) years for wine harvest [39]. Analysis of heliogeomagnetic data available from the OMNIweb database identified proton temperature, sigma (Bx), plasma speed, and Kp as potential counterparts, with periods of 34.3 (95% CI: 27.0, 41.6), 31.9 (95% CI: 24.7, 39.0), 33.0 (95% CI: 20.1, 46.0), and 32.7 (95% CI: 28.3, 37.0) years, respectively [41].…”

“…Temperature and rainfall are also characterized by an about 33-to 35-year periodicity, the so-called BEL cycle, named after Brückner, Egeson, and Lockyer [39]. Charles Egeson can be credited with the first publication on a cycle in weather said to be of 33 years length, documented by charts of time series covering 110 years.…”

“…Within a few months, extensive documentation of transtridecadal changes was provided by Brückner. Lockyer associated this transtridecadal component with the period he found to characterize changes in the duration of the about 11-year solar activity cycle [39]. Our analysis of Brückner's data taken off his published figure estimated the period of temperature to be 36.8 (95% CI: 32.6, 41.0) years and that of rainfall to be 33.6 (95% CI: 29.9, 37.4) years [40].…”

The Combined Effect of Atmospheric and Solar Activity Forcings on the Hydroclimate in Southeastern Europe

“…First observed in climate observations by Eduand Brüuckner, the ~33-year cycle was also later detected in sunspots by Charles Egeson and William Lockyer, as was shown by Halberg et al (2010) [29]; therefore, the solar cycle of approximately 33 years is also known as the BEL (Brüuckner-Egeson-Lockyer) cycle.…”

Mudanças climáticas e ciclos naturais do clima: passado, presente e futuro da temperatura no Brasil

“…Em estudos modernos, os ciclos Brückner também são referidos a componentes espectrais inseridos no intervalo que corresponde a períodos entre 30 a 40 anos. Com novas evidências experimentais convincentes de tal periodicidade em processos climáticos, uma análise detalhada estendeu os períodos dos ciclos de Brückner para o intervalo entre 30 para 45 anos (HALBERG et al, 2010a(HALBERG et al, , 2010bRASPOPOV, 2000). Figura 11 -Tabela do livro de Brückner.…”