El Niño and the delayed action oscillator

Boutle, Ian; Taylor, Richard; Röemer, Rudolf A.

doi:10.1119/1.2358155

Cited by 62 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…For instance, in the cases of communication in neuronal systems [37], proper functioning in cardiac and respiratory systems [38], and specific physiological processes [39] such as cell necrosis within organs [40], stable and robust global oscillation is quite essential. Even from the perspective of power grids [41] and the El Niño or southern oscillation in Earth's ocean and atmosphere [42], the study of dynamical rhythmicity is very important.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Survivability of a metapopulation under local extinctions

et al. 2017

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A metapopulation structure in landscape ecology comprises a group of interacting spatially separated subpopulations or patches of the same species that may experience several local extinctions. This makes the investigation of survivability (in the form of global oscillation) of a metapopulation on top of diverse dispersal topologies extremely crucial. However, among various dispersal topologies in ecological networks, which one can provide higher metapopulation survivability under local extinction is still not well explored. In this article, we scrutinize the robustness of an ecological network consisting of prey-predator patches having Holling type I functional response, against progressively extinct population patches. We present a comprehensive study on this while considering global, small-world and scale-free dispersal of the subpopulations. Furthermore, we extend our work in enhancing survivability in the form of sustained global oscillation by introducing asymmetries in the dispersal rates of the considered species. Our findings affirm that the asynchrony among the patches plays an important role in the survivability of a metapopulation. In order to demonstrate the model independence of the observed phenomenon, we perform a similar analysis for patches exhibiting Holling type II functional response. On the grounds of the obtained results, our work is expected to provide a better perception of the influence of dispersal arrangements on the global survivability of ecological networks.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Survivability of a metapopulation under local extinctions

et al. 2017

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“…In this sense, it is appropriate to remind the known model of oscillator with the "retarded argument" (Suarez and Schopf, 1988;Boutle et al, 2007) which quite truthfully describes a nonlinear dynamics of temperature oscillations (the ∆T anomalies) of the EL Nino current at annual time scale and in the modified form looks like:…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…(30) describes the strong positive feedback with the framework of the ocean-atmosphere system; the second term limits the growth of unstable perturbations of ocean temperature; b is the constant parameter; the fourth term emulates the motion of equatorial "trapped" waves (the Rossby "latent" waves) through the Pacific ocean, which after elastic reflection on the western continental boundary return (as the Kelvin waves) along the equator to the central part of the Pacific ocean with the time delay ∆; the fifth term Υ(t) describes the continuous changes of ocean surface average temperature in the course of year year; the sixth term (ℜ≈5°С/100 years) emulates the global warming; ξ(t) is the white noise of Gaussian type with zero mean (〈ξ(t)〉=0) and standard deviation λ (Suarez and Schopf, 1988;Boutle et al, 2007).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Galactic cosmic rays—clouds effect and bifurcation model of the Earth global climate. Part 2. Comparison of theory with experiment

Rusov

Vaschenko

Linnik

et al. 2010

Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics

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The solution of energy-balance model of the Earth global climate and the EPICA Dome C and Vostok experimental data of the Earth surface palaeotemperature evolution over past 420 and 740 kyr are compared.In the framework of proposed bifurcation model (i) the possible sharp warmings of the Dansgaard-Oeschger type during the last glacial period due to stochastic resonance is theoretically argued; (ii) the concept of climatic sensitivity of water in the atmosphere, whose temperature instability has the form of so-called hysteresis loop, is proposed, and based of this concept the time series of global ice volume over the past 1000 kyr, which is in good agreement with the time series of δ 18 O concentration in the sea sediments, is obtained; (iii) the so-called "CO 2 doubling" problem is discussed.

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“…[19] where two sub-regions of the Pacific was incorporated in the model. Specifically, these models mimicked the coupling of regions along the equator, where one expects varying self-delay coupling strengths in the sub-regions, as well as varying (possibly strong) delay times [18]. We will first describe this coupled model in detail, and then review the patterns emerging in this class of models, as obtained in Ref.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…1 has been scaled by k, temperature by b/k. The dimensionless constants α = A/k and δ = k∆ [18]. This model allows multiple steady states and when these fixed points become unstable, self-sustained oscillations emerge.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coexistence of attractors in a coupled nonlinear delayed system modelling El Niño Southern Oscillations

Meena¹,

Surovyatkina²,

Sinha³

2017

IASCS

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We study the dynamics of the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly using a model of the temporal patterns of two sub-regions, mimicking behaviour similar to El Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO). Specifically, we present the existence, stability, and basins of attraction of the solutions arising in the model system in the space of these parameters: self delay, delay and inter-region coupling strengths. The emergence or suppression of oscillations in our models is a dynamical feature of utmost relevance, as it signals the presence or absence of ENSO-like oscillations. In contrast to the well-known low order model of ENSO, where the influence of the neighbouring regions on the region of interest is modelled as external noise, we consider neighbouring regions as a coupled deterministic dynamical systems. Different parameters yield a rich variety of dynamical patterns in our model, ranging from steady states and homogeneous oscillations to irregular oscillations and coexistence of oscillatory attractors, without explicit inclusion of noise. Interestingly, if we take the self-delay coupling strengths of the two sub-regions to be such that the temperature of one region goes to a fixed point regime when uncoupled, while the other system is in the oscillatory regime, then on coupling both systems show oscillations. This implies that oscillations may arise in certain sub-regions through coupling to neighbouring regions. Namely, a sub-region with very low delay, which would naturally go to a steady state when uncoupled, yields oscillations when coupled to another sub-region with high enough delay.We explicitly obtain the basins of attraction for the different steady states and oscillatory states in the model. Our results might be helpful for forecasting of El Niño (or La Niña) progress, as it indicates the combination of initial SST anomalies in the sub-regions that can result in a El Niño/La Niña episodes. In particular, the result suggests using an interval as a criterion to estimate the El-Nino or La-Nino progress instead of the currently used the single value criterion.2

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El Niño and the delayed action oscillator

Cited by 62 publications

References 19 publications

Survivability of a metapopulation under local extinctions

Survivability of a metapopulation under local extinctions

Galactic cosmic rays—clouds effect and bifurcation model of the Earth global climate. Part 2. Comparison of theory with experiment

Coexistence of attractors in a coupled nonlinear delayed system modelling El Niño Southern Oscillations

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