El Niño southern oscillation and its effects on world vegetable oil prices: assessing asymmetries using smooth transition models

Ubilava, David; Holt, M. A.

doi:10.1111/j.1467-8489.2012.00616.x

Cited by 49 publications

(45 citation statements)

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“…Such asymmetrical relationships highlight that the strength of El Niño years exerts a much greater influence on Thailand's rice production, area harvested and yield than the magnitude of La Niña years does. The results from this analysis are in line with the studies of Ubilawa (2012) and Ubilawa and Holt (2013) demonstrating that El Niño and La Niña events exerted asymmetric effects on wheat yields, prices, stock-to-use ratios and exports for all export countries. Gutierrez (2017) also showed that La Niña exerted, on average, a stronger and negative impact on wheat yield anomalies, exports and stock-to-use ratios than El Niño.…”

Section: Asymmetrical Relationships Between Enso Index and Thailand'ssupporting

confidence: 87%

Impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Rice Production in Thailand during 1961-2016

Limsakul¹

2019

EnNRJ

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The impacts of ENSO and its associated climate variability on Thailand's rice production, area harvested and yield during 1961-2016 were examined. Analysis showed that year-to-year weather-related variations in Thailand's rice production, area harvested and yield which accounted for about one third of total interannual variance tended to vary in response to the phase reversals of ENSO events, with large decreases occurred during El Niño events. Rice production, area harvested and yield also exhibited lower (higher) than normal during the years when Thailand experienced deficit (excess) rainfall and lower (greater) number of rainy days. These results in combination with the previous studies suggest that ENSO exerts its influence on rice production and yield in Thailand via inducing anomalies in rainfall and temperature. Another noteworthy finding was the asymmetrical ENSO-Thailand's rice production relationship. Significant decline was observed only during El Niño events, highlighting a much greater influence of El Niño events on Thailand's rice production, area harvested and yield than La Niña events. This observation provides additional evidence extending the previously reported asymmetry in the ENSO-rainfall relationship in Thailand to rice production and yield as well. Hence, the asymmetrical ENSO-rice relationship should be taken into account when developing linearly predictive model.

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Section: Asymmetrical Relationships Between Enso Index and Thailand'ssupporting

confidence: 87%

Impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Rice Production in Thailand during 1961-2016

Limsakul¹

2019

EnNRJ

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“…Therefore, these price shocks will eventually impact the demands for close substitutes such as soybean oil or sunflower oil. Ubilava and Holt () and Liao et al . () found that El Niño has a negative effect on soybean futures prices while La Niña has the opposite effect.…”

Section: Incorporating Exogenous Drivers Of Volatilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Volatility in Oilseeds and Vegetable Oils Markets: Drivers and Spillovers

Brümmer¹,

Korn²,

Schlüßler³

et al. 2015

J Agricultural Economics

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Food price volatility has re‐emerged as an important topic of political discussion since the food price crisis of 2007–2008. Different volatility drivers have been identified for different markets in the theoretical and empirical literature. However, there is no comprehensive analysis that considers a large number of potential drivers and investigates their joint effects in a dynamic model of interrelated markets. Our study provides such a volatility analysis for the oilseeds and vegetable oils markets. We use a common GARCH approach and a VAR model to identify volatility drivers and spillover effects. Our results show that exchange rate volatility is very important. However, the hotly debated financialisation of commodity markets is not found to be volatility increasing in our monthly data. Impulse response functions show strong spillover effects. Because many volatility drivers found to be important in other markets have no significant effect in our study, our results suggest that volatility drivers are market specific. This implies that any volatility‐reducing policies need to be designed for the market in question.

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“…For example, the increasing temperatures and sunlight and decreasing rainfalls prompt coffee plants growth which has a beneficial influence (Ubilava, 2012a andBastianin, Lanza, andManera, 2018). As reported by Ubilava, 2013, El Niño reduces wheat, corn and soybeans prices in the international market and those goods are imported by Colombia which could help reduce inflationary pressures during a strong El Niño.…”

Section: Enso and Its Relationship With The Colombian Economymentioning

confidence: 96%

“…On the economic framework, Hall, Skalin, and Teräsvirta, 2001 identify disparities in the autocorrelation functions patterns which reflect ENSO asymmetries between El Niño and La Niña phases. Supporting this idea, Ubilava and Holt, 2013 state an improvement in performance modeling of commodity price forecasts by using nonlinear smooth Nonlinear relationship between the weather phenomenon El Niño and Colombian food prices transition models compared to the traditional lineal models.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Relaciones no lineales entre el fenómeno climático El Niño y los precios de los alimentos en Colombia

Melo‐Velandia¹,

Parra‐Amado²,

Abril‐Salcedo³

2019

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The results and opinions are exclusive responsibility of the authors and those do not commit the Fondo Nacional de Garantías nor Banco de la República nor its board of directors.Abstract Extreme weather events, like a strong El Niño (ENSO), affect society in many different ways especially in the context of recent globe warming. In the Colombian case, ENSO had a significant impact on consumer food prices during the strongest event in 2015-16. Our research evaluates the relationship between ENSO and Colombian food inflation growth by using a smooth transition non-linear model. We estimate the impacts of a strong ENSO on food inflation growth by adopting Generalized Impulse Response Functions (GIRFs) and the results suggest that the weather shocks are transitory and asymmetric on inflation. A strong El Niño shock has a significate effect on the food inflation growth from six to nine months after the shock and the accumulated elasticity is close to 465 basic points. We build the GIRFs for eight different episodes associated with a strong El Niño in the period corresponding from March 1962 to December 2018 and there is no evidence of changes in the size of Colombian food inflation growth responses over time.JEL code.C32, C50, E31.Los resultados y opiniones contenidas en el presente documento son responsabilidad exclusiva de los autores y no comprometen al Fondo Nacional de Garantías ni al Banco de la República ni a su Junta Directiva. ResumenEventos extremos del clima como El Niño (ENSO) fuerte afectan la sociedad de diferentes maneras en especial en el reciente contexto de calentamiento global. En 2015-16, se observó el evento de El Niño más fuerte en losúltimos cien años el cual presentó un impacto significativo sobre los precios de alimentos al consumidor en el caso colombiano. El presente trabajo de investigación evalúa la relación entre ENSO y el crecimiento de la inflación de alimentos para el consumidor en Colombia usando un modelo no lineal de transición suave y estimando funciones de impulso respuesta generalizadas (GIRFs). Los resultados sugieren que dichos choques climáticos son transitorios y asimétricos sobre la inflación. Así, El Niño fuerte tiene un impacto significativo sobre el crecimiento de la inflación de alimentos entre seis y nueve meses después del choque climático y la elasticidad acumulada es 465 puntos básicos. Adicionalmente, se construyeron GIRFs para ocho diferentes episodios de tiempo asociados con un fenómeno de El Niño fuerte que se observaron entre marzo de 1962 y diciembre de 2018 y se encontró que no hay evidencia estadística de cambios en el tamaño de las respuestas del crecimiento de la inflación de alimentos en Colombia a través del tiempo.Clasificación JEL: C32, C50, E31.Palabras clave: El Niño-Oscilación del Sur, modelos no lineales de transición suave, inflación.

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El Niño southern oscillation and its effects on world vegetable oil prices: assessing asymmetries using smooth transition models

Cited by 49 publications

References 45 publications

Impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Rice Production in Thailand during 1961-2016

Impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Rice Production in Thailand during 1961-2016

Volatility in Oilseeds and Vegetable Oils Markets: Drivers and Spillovers

Relaciones no lineales entre el fenómeno climático El Niño y los precios de los alimentos en Colombia

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