El Niño–Southern Oscillation Impacts on Winter Vegetable Production in Florida*

Abstract

Florida’s mild winters allow the state to play a vital role in supplying fresh vegetables for U.S. consumers. Producers also benefit from premium prices when low temperatures prevent production in most of the country. This study characterizes the influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the Florida vegetable industry using statistical analysis of the response of historical crop (yield, prices, production, and value) and weather variables (freeze hazard, temperatures, rainfall, and solar radiation) to ENSO phase and its interaction with location and time of year. Annual mean yields showed little evidence of response to ENSO phase and its interaction with location. ENSO phase and season interacted to influence quarterly yields, prices, production, and value. Yields (tomato, bell pepper, sweet corn, and snap bean) were lower and prices (bell pepper and snap bean) were higher in El Niño than in neutral or La Niña winters. Production and value of tomatoes were higher in La Niña winters. The yield response can be explained by increased rainfall, reduced daily maximum temperatures, and reduced solar radiation in El Niño winters. Yield and production of winter vegetables appeared to be less responsive to ENSO phase after 1980; for tomato and bell pepper, this may be due to improvements in production technology that mitigate problems associated with excess rainfall. Winter yield and price responses to El Niño events have important implications for both producers and consumers of winter vegetables, and suggest opportunities for further research.

Assessing uncertainties in crop model simulations using daily bias-corrected Regional Circulation Model outputs

“…Resale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisher not always coincide with important cropping seasons (Hansen et al 1999); therefore ENSO does not always have a clear effect on crop yields, especially during summers in the northern hemisphere. Regional Circulation Models (RCMs) nested within Global Circulation Models (GCMs) have the potential to improve forecasts because they predict large-scale circulation patterns that may influence local meteorological variables relative to ENSO-phase alone.…”

Stochastic Modeling of the Effects of Large-Scale Circulation on Daily Weather in the Southeastern U.S.

“…One reason for focusing on the Southeast is that effects of large-scale circulation, particularly the ENSO phenomenon, have been detected in crop yields; for instance, corn yields tend to be higher during ENSO cold phase events (Hansen et al, 1998(Hansen et al, , 1999. These impacts on crop yields have also been quantified indirectly through use of mechanistic crop models such as EPIC (Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator; Williams et al, 1989) (Izaurralde et al, 1999;Legler et al, 1999).…”

Variability in climatology and agricultural production in China in association with the East Asian summer monsoon and El Niño Southern Oscillation

“…Although ENSO occurs within the tropical Pacific region, its effects are felt around much of the planet, so that it accounts for a substantial portion of the observed inter-annual variability in temperatures and precipitation (Hansen et al 1999). ENSO influences the spatial patterns of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM), and of drought and floods in China (Fu & Teng 1988, Huang & Wu 1989, Zhang et al 1999, Huang & Zhou 2002.…”

“…During the summer period, a rain belt moves gradually from the south to the north, and the climate in eastern China becomes hot and humid. The high rate of variation in the monsoon climate strongly affects the spatial and temporal variability of Asian ecosystems (Fu & Wen 2001).Although ENSO occurs within the tropical Pacific region, its effects are felt around much of the planet, so that it accounts for a substantial portion of the observed inter-annual variability in temperatures and precipitation (Hansen et al 1999). ENSO influences the spatial patterns of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM), and of drought and floods in China (Fu & Teng 1988, Huang & Wu 1989, Zhang et al 1999, Huang & Zhou 2002.…”