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Assessing risks of climate variability and climate change for Indonesian rice agriculture

“…We focus on precipitation, rather than temperature, because the links between precipitation and production in Indonesia are significant and well documented. Our earlier work (1) showed that ENSO has been the primary determinant of year-to-year variation in Indonesian rice output over the past three decades, accounting for almost two-thirds of the total variation. During El Niño events, Indonesia's production of rice, the country's primary food staple, is affected in two important ways: (i) delayed rainfall causes the rice crop to be planted later in the monsoon season, thus extending the ''hungry season'' (paceklik, the season of scarcity) before the main rice harvest; and (ii) delayed planting of the main wet-season crop may not be compensated by increased planting later in the crop year, leaving Indonesia with reduced rice area and a larger than normal annual rice deficit.…”

“…Indonesia consistently experiences dry climatic conditions and droughts during the warm phase of the ENSO cycle (El Niño), with significant consequences for agricultural output, rural incomes, and staple food prices (1,2). The year-to-year dynamics of ENSO and precipitation over the archipelago have been well studied (3)(4)(5)(6), as have various links between ENSO, crop production, and famines in different parts of the country (7)(8)(9)(10).…”

Research Trends on Natural Hazards, Disasters, Risk Reduction and Climate Change in Indonesia: A Systematic Literature Review

“…Since the majority of materials published in this category are related to the review on the impacts on climate change in Indonesia, this paper examines deeper on those literature ( Figure 5). It is shown that the impact on crops production, mainly on rice has been the majority of those researches (Caruso et al, 285 2016;D'Arrigo et al, 2011;D'Arrigo and Wilson, 2008;Kawanishi and Mimura, 2015;Keil et al, 2009;Naylor et al, 2001;Sano et al, 2013;Shofiyati et al, 2014). This is strongly related to the examination of too much water which can cause flood Marfai et al, 2015Marfai et al, , 2014Muis et al, 2015;Neolaka, 2013Neolaka, , 2012Sarminingsih et al, 2014;Shrestha et al, 2014)or too little water which can or have caused drought in Indonesia (Aldrian and Djamil, 2008;D'Arrigo and Smerdon, 2008;D'Arrigo and Wilson, 2008;D'Arrigo et al, 2006;Keil et al, 290 2009;Keil et al, 2008).…”

ENSO- and Rainfall-Sensitive Vegetation Regions in Indonesia as Identified from Multi-Sensor Remote Sensing Data

“…It shares borders with Malaysia (on Kalimantan Island), Papua New Guinea (on Papua Island), and Timor Leste (along East Nusa Tenggara Province). The country is situated between the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean, making it susceptible to the interannual oscillations of ENSO that affect rainfall variability and crop production [12,29].…”

“…Therefore, changes in vegetation properties, such as phenology and declines in cover would be highly affected by ENSO anomalies [10]. Many previous studies have identified the impact of ENSO in Indonesia on crop production [11][12][13]. Previous studies of the ENSO impact on vegetation in Indonesia were benefited from the available long-term dataset of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) collected from Advanced Very High-Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) observations as the primary dataset [14,15].…”