Election closeness and voter turnout: Evidence from California ballot propositions

Matsusaka, John G.

doi:10.1007/bf01053302

Cited by 105 publications

(71 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…Accordingly, academics have set about testing the hypothesis that voter turnout increases as an election becomes (or is at least perceived by the electorate to become) closer. A number of measurements of 'closeness' have been suggested, including the absolute difference in votes for and against in a twohorse race (Cox 1988), the percentage difference in votes cast between the winning and second placed candidate (Matsusaka 1993) and the marginality in the preceding election (Denver and Hands 1974). Of these variables, the third has repeatedly proved to be a statistically significant predictor of turnout in British elections (Mughan 1986, Lutz 1991, Denver and Halfacree 1992, Whiteley et al 2001, McAllister 2001.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Space matters: Geographic variability of electoral turnout determinants in the 2012 London mayoral election

Mansley

Demšar

2015

Electoral Studies

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Abstract:Electoral participation is an important measure of the health of a liberal democracy. The determinants of voter turnout have been examined across a range of elections, but geographical approaches are relatively rare and are mostly performed at large scale aggregations and for national elections. This paper addresses this gap by exploring geographic variability in relationships between the turnout at a local election and socio-demographic variables at a detailed spatial level. Specifically, we focus on the London mayoral election, an important element of the 21st century local government reform in Britain, which, until now, has seldom been analysed from a geographical perspective. By linking the turnout from the 2012 mayoral election to socio-demographic data from the 2011 Census and doing this at the level of London's 625 wards, for the first time a more detailed picture of the spatially uneven nature of turnout is evidenced than in previous studies which have focused on larger aggregations, typically constituencies. Analysis is approached through spatial analysis using geographically weighted regression (GWR), which enables the investigation of local variations in voting patterns. The results demonstrate that electoral processes do vary over geographic space and that some of the variables that are traditionally assumed to affect the turnout in a specific way, do not do so uniformly over space or even change the direction to the opposite of the traditionally assumed affect in certain locations. Our findings present a starting point for a more detailed investigation as to why this heterogeneity exists and which social processes it relates to.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Space matters: Geographic variability of electoral turnout determinants in the 2012 London mayoral election

Mansley

Demšar

2015

Electoral Studies

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“…Inspection of (25) and (26) reveal that setting r = 1 improves the incumbent's probability of winning each j state electoral college vote but worsens his chances of winning each i state electoral college vote. Moreover, since the degree of electoral competition is the same across the two state types, it follows that ∆ρ j < −∆ρ i .…”

Section: Proofmentioning

confidence: 99%

A swing state theory of trade protection in the Electoral College

Muûls

Petropoulou²

2013

Canadian J of Economics

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This paper develops an infinite-horizon, political agency model with a continuum of political districts, in which incumbent politicians can improve their re-election probability by attracting swing voters in key states through strategic trade protection. A unique equilibrium is shown to exist where incumbents build a reputation of protectionism through their policy decisions. We show that strategic trade protection is more likely when protectionist swing voters have a lead over free-trade supporters in states with relatively strong electoral competition that represent a larger proportion of Electoral College votes. US data is used to test the hypothesis that industrial concentration in swing and decisive states is an important determinant of trade protection of that industry. The empirical findings provide support for the theory and highlight an important, and previously overlooked, determinant of trade protection in the US Electoral College.

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“…28 A more plausible approach is a model in which a political leader increases his effort to foster the participation among those who are in favor of the proposed law when the vote is close: A major reason for campaigning is not only to reward those that are already decided to vote, but also to get the undecided voters to turn out. Political strategists have long recognised that it is much 26 Various specifications of partial equilibrium models have been estimated: Rosenthal and Sen (1973), Kau and Rubin (1976), Crain and Deaton (1977), Foster (1984), Darvish andRosenberg (1988), andMatsusaka (1993). 27 For a recent survey on theoretical paradoxes of voter participation see Dhillon and Peralta (2002) and the references therein.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Institutional Openness and the Use of Referendums and Popular Initiatives: Evidence from Swiss Cantons

Barankay

Sciarini

Trechsel

2003

Swiss Political Sci Review

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Despite the growing interest in direct democratic institutions -like referendums and popular initiatives -the empirical evidence on the relationship between institutional openness and use is still sparse. We use a novel data set on the institutional openness and test its link to actual voting behaviour for ballots in the Swiss cantons for the period 1970-1996. We find no robust relationship between the number of cantonal ballots and openness, measured by the number of signatures necessary to force a ballot and the time limit within which they have to be gathered. We observe, however, that openness is negatively related with voter participation. Having to gather more signatures apparently increases the awareness in the population at large, creates more information about the issues at hand, and thus induces more voters to turn out.

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Election closeness and voter turnout: Evidence from California ballot propositions

Cited by 105 publications

References 18 publications

Space matters: Geographic variability of electoral turnout determinants in the 2012 London mayoral election

Space matters: Geographic variability of electoral turnout determinants in the 2012 London mayoral election

A swing state theory of trade protection in the Electoral College

Institutional Openness and the Use of Referendums and Popular Initiatives: Evidence from Swiss Cantons

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