Space matters: Geographic variability of electoral turnout determinants in the 2012 London mayoral election

Abstract

Abstract:Electoral participation is an important measure of the health of a liberal democracy. The determinants of voter turnout have been examined across a range of elections, but geographical approaches are relatively rare and are mostly performed at large scale aggregations and for national elections. This paper addresses this gap by exploring geographic variability in relationships between the turnout at a local election and socio-demographic variables at a detailed spatial level. Specifically, we focus on the London mayoral election, an important element of the 21st century local government reform in Britain, which, until now, has seldom been analysed from a geographical perspective. By linking the turnout from the 2012 mayoral election to socio-demographic data from the 2011 Census and doing this at the level of London's 625 wards, for the first time a more detailed picture of the spatially uneven nature of turnout is evidenced than in previous studies which have focused on larger aggregations, typically constituencies. Analysis is approached through spatial analysis using geographically weighted regression (GWR), which enables the investigation of local variations in voting patterns. The results demonstrate that electoral processes do vary over geographic space and that some of the variables that are traditionally assumed to affect the turnout in a specific way, do not do so uniformly over space or even change the direction to the opposite of the traditionally assumed affect in certain locations. Our findings present a starting point for a more detailed investigation as to why this heterogeneity exists and which social processes it relates to.

Seçi̇m Sinirlarinin Deği̇şti̇ri̇lmesi̇ Yoluyla Türki̇ye'de Yeni̇den Merkezi̇leşme: Ankara Örneği̇

“…For example, voting behavior differs in individuals with a high profile in terms of income and education, as well as by age groups and those with low incomes and educational levels. In addition, the participation rate of older people in elections is different from that of the youth (Leighley and Nagler, 1992;Lipset, 1960;Mansley and Demsar, 2015;Pattie and Johnston, 1998). However in our study age factor has been reported to have no impact on the elections.…”

Crowdsourcing indicators for cultural ecosystem services: A geographically weighted approach for mountain landscapes

“…Mansley and Demšar, 2015, Brunsdon et al, 1996, Fotheringham et al, 2013, as well as physical geography and ecology (e.g. Atkinson et al, 2003, Clement et al, 2009, Harris et al, 2010, Jetz et al, 2005, proving the suitability of this tool to provide an explanatory approach in spatially varying relationships (Páez et al, 2011).…”

The Association between Urban Public Transport Infrastructure and Social Equity and Spatial Accessibility within the Urban Environment: An Investigation of Tramlink in London

“…Moran's I was implemented on both the global and local models, with two tests being undertaken for robustness: Inverse Distance Squared and Queen's Case (Table 3). It can be seen through the higher Moran's I score that there was more variation in the global models when compared to the local models, which suggests that GWR was the correct tool for this analysis [77]. There are extreme variations for all independent variables in the local results, with these variations highlighting that spatial heterogeneity is occurring, while also suggesting that certain locations are outliers.…”

“…Moran's I was implemented on both the global and local models, with two tests being undertaken for robustness: Inverse Distance Squared and Queen's Case (Table 3). It can be seen through the higher Moran's I score that there was more variation in the global models when compared to the local models, which suggests that GWR was the correct tool for this analysis [77].…”