Elections, competition, and constituent evaluations of U.S. senators

Sievert, Joel; Williamson, Ryan D.

doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2021.102424

Cited by 5 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…Our theoretical expectations therefore build on and add to past work that explores voter decision making in elections across multiple levels of government (Arceneaux 2006;Atkeson and Partin 1995;Carsey and Wright 1998;Simon 1989) and work on partisan loyalty and split-ticket voting (Bartels 2000;Davis and Mason 2016;Jacobson 2015;Smidt 2017). 1 One of the primary factors explored in research on nationalization is the impact of presidential vote choice or presidential approval on subpresidential elections (Carson, Sievert, and Williamson 2024;Hopkins 2018;Jacobson 2019;Rogers 2016;Sievert and McKee 2019;Sievert and Williamson 2022). Although several decades of evidence indicates that assessments of the president or presidential candidates can inform vote choice (Atkeson and Partin 1995;Carsey and Wright 1998;Simon 1989), these effects have increased over time (Jacobson 2019).…”

Section: Voters In Nationalized Electionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…One of the primary factors explored in research on nationalization is the impact of presidential vote choice or presidential approval on subpresidential elections (Carson, Sievert, and Williamson 2024; Hopkins 2018; Jacobson 2019; Rogers 2016; Sievert and McKee 2019; Sievert and Williamson 2022). Although several decades of evidence indicates that assessments of the president or presidential candidates can inform vote choice (Atkeson and Partin 1995; Carsey and Wright 1998; Simon 1989), these effects have increased over time (Jacobson 2019).…”

Section: Voters In Nationalized Electionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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All politics are national: Partisan defection in national and subnational elections

Sievert,

Banda

2024

Social Science Quarterly

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ObjectiveWhile they were once viewed as largely local or candidate‐centered contests, recent American elections have come to be dominated by national forces such as presidential politics and partisanship. Prior research on voter behavior in this new era of nationalized politics, however, has largely focused on more high‐profile contests and has not examined voter decision making across multiple levels of government.MethodsOur study uses cross‐sectional (2006–2020) survey data from the Cooperative Election Study to explore the determinants of partisan loyalty and defection across both national and subnational American elections.ResultsWe find consistent evidence that citizens increasingly rely upon national forces—specifically partisan‐ideological sorting and presidential approval—to make decisions about candidates up and down the ballot. We also find mixed evidence that evaluations of the national economy inform defection behavior.ConclusionThese findings indicate that the national political forces shape voter behavior in national and subnational contests in effectively identical ways. Thus, the evidence supports the notion that all (electoral) politics are now national.

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Section: Voters In Nationalized Electionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Voters In Nationalized Electionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

All politics are national: Partisan defection in national and subnational elections

Sievert,

Banda

2024

Social Science Quarterly

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“…Several factors may condition the hypothesized relationship. First, partisanship can result in more stable evaluations over time (Donovan et al, 2020; Sievert & Williamson, 2021). We would therefore expect self-identified Independents to be the main group that updates their attitudes toward a party once it selects a new presidential nominee.…”

Section: Lame Ducks Presidential Candidates and The Partymentioning

confidence: 99%

Whose Party is It?: Lame Ducks, Presidential Candidates, and Evaluations of the Party

Sievert

Hinojosa

2022

American Politics Research

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Presidents and presidential candidates serve as an important source cue for the mass public’s attitudes toward and evaluations of the political parties. Our study evaluates these dynamics during the transition from a lame duck president, Barack Obama, to a new party standard-bearer, Hillary Clinton. Our analysis takes advantage of the fact that the 2014 and 2016 Cooperative Election Study (CES) and the 2012 and 2016 American National Election Study (ANES) surveys asked respondents to evaluate both Obama, Clinton, and the Democratic Party. These data allow us to examine whether the transition from Obama to Clinton changed the primary referent for public attitudes toward the Democratic Party. Our results provide mixed evidence about a change in the relative importance of attitudes toward Clinton and Obama when the former became the nominee, and the latter was a lame duck. While the public’s view of the connection between Obama and Democratic Party’s ideological profile remained constant across time, respondents did update their affective assessments of the party in the face of a new party leader once Clinton was the nominee.

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Do Quality Candidates and Incumbents Still Matter in the Partisan World? Comparing Trends and Relationship Between Candidate Differentials and Congressional Election Outcomes, 1900–2022

Algara,

Bae

2024

Journal of Political Marketing

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Elections, competition, and constituent evaluations of U.S. senators

Cited by 5 publications

References 29 publications

All politics are national: Partisan defection in national and subnational elections

All politics are national: Partisan defection in national and subnational elections

Whose Party is It?: Lame Ducks, Presidential Candidates, and Evaluations of the Party

Do Quality Candidates and Incumbents Still Matter in the Partisan World? Comparing Trends and Relationship Between Candidate Differentials and Congressional Election Outcomes, 1900–2022

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