Embracing the Darkness: Methods for Tackling Uncertainty and Complexity in Environmental Disaster Risks

Abstract

Environmental systems are complex and often difficult to predict. The interrelationships within such systems can create abrupt changes with lasting impacts, yet they are often overlooked until disasters occur. Mounting environmental and social crises demand the need to better understand both the role and consequences of emerging risks in global environmental politics (GEP). In this research note, we discuss scenarios and simulations as innovative tools that may help GEP scholars identify, assess, and communicate solutions to complex problems and systemic risks. We argue that scenarios and simulations are effective at providing context for interpreting “weak signals.” Applying simulations to research of complex risks also offers opportunities to address otherwise overwhelming uncertainty.

Risk Governance and Sustainability: A Scientometric Analysis and Literature Review

“…Environmental disasters occur from constellations of hazards that overwhelm societal response capabilities. Cognitive and organizational obstacles among decision-makers could result in lack of preparedness for environmental crises [36]. Stakeholder participation assists decision-makers in identifying public interest concerns, promotes environmental justice and enhance accountability and acceptability of environmental decisions, and therefore improves the adaptive capacity [37].…”

Planning with uncertainty

“…Across the world, complex social and environmental problems bring additional uncertainties. Despite its ubiquity, responses to uncertainty differfrom calls for better tools to respond to uncertainty (Matejova & Briggs, 2021) to a need for better integration of uncertain outcomes in decision making (Winkler, 2016). In rational planning cultures that have a linear approach to plan implementation, uncertainty is generally treated as something to be managed and mitigated.…”