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Environmental systems are complex and often difficult to predict. The interrelationships within such systems can create abrupt changes with lasting impacts, yet they are often overlooked until disasters occur. Mounting environmental and social crises demand the need to better understand both the role and consequences of emerging risks in global environmental politics (GEP). In this research note, we discuss scenarios and simulations as innovative tools that may help GEP scholars identify, assess, and communicate solutions to complex problems and systemic risks. We argue that scenarios and simulations are effective at providing context for interpreting “weak signals.” Applying simulations to research of complex risks also offers opportunities to address otherwise overwhelming uncertainty.

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Appendix 1. Data collection procedures, case descriptions, and sampled newspapers for content analysis.1 Lee, A. 2014. Cleaning up after Canada's largest tailings pond leak. Maclean's, 14 August. http://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/cleaning-up-after-canadas-largest-tailings-pond-leak/; Meissner, D. 2016. Mount Polley mine disaster hits 2-year mark, fallout still causes divisions. CBC News, 4 August.