Emerging Pacific Quasi‐Decadal Oscillation Over the Past 70 Years

Jin, Chunhan; Wang, Bin; Liu, Jian

doi:10.1029/2020gl090851

Cited by 11 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…The PQDO index is defined as the area-weighted average of sea surface temperature in the central tropical Pacific (10°S–10°N, 165°E–165°W). This definition is consistent with previous studies 45 , 52 .…”

Section: Methodssupporting

confidence: 93%

“…Further, we employ the Monte Carlo Singular Spectrum Analysis to examine the credibility of the PQDO’s quasi-periodicity. We generated 5000 realizations using an auto-regressive model and the extended PQDO observation (1960–2020) since its quasi-periodicity only emerges till the late 1950s 45 , 48 . It exhibits a spectral peak within 12–14 years, which is statistically significant at the 95% confidence level (Supplementary Fig.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Decadal oscillation provides skillful multiyear predictions of Antarctic sea ice

Liu,

Sun,

et al. 2023

Nat Commun

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Over the satellite era, Antarctic sea ice exhibited an overall long-term increasing trend, contrary to the Arctic reduction under global warming. However, the drastic decline of Antarctic sea ice in 2014–2018 raises questions about its interannual and decadal-scale variabilities, which are poorly understood and predicted. Here, we identify an Antarctic sea ice decadal oscillation, exhibiting a quasi-period of 8–16 years, that is anticorrelated with the Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation (r = −0.90). By combining observations, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project historical simulations, and pacemaker climate model experiments, we find evidence that the synchrony between the sea ice decadal oscillation and Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation is linked to atmospheric poleward-propagating Rossby wave trains excited by heating in the central tropical Pacific. These waves weaken the Amundsen Sea Low, melting sea ice due to enhanced shortwave radiation and warm advection. A Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation-based regression model shows that this tropical-polar teleconnection carries multi-year predictability.

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Section: Methodssupporting

confidence: 93%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decadal oscillation provides skillful multiyear predictions of Antarctic sea ice

Liu,

Sun,

et al. 2023

Nat Commun

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“…A second significant temperature anomaly is located in the northern Pacific Ocean with positive values and the adjacent region of Alaska and the Rocky Mountains showing a negative anomaly, a typical picture of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Several studies (e.g., Chunhan et al., 2021; Guttu et al., 2021) have found a similar relationship between changes in TSI and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation through changes in temperature gradients induced by different UV values. Chiodo et al.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 75%

Future Climate Under CMIP6 Solar Activity Scenarios

Sedláčék

Sukhodolov

Egorova

et al. 2023

Earth and Space Science

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Predictions of solar activity in the future are difficult to make due to the chaotic state of solar dynamo and the high nonlinearity of physical processes on the Sun. Therefore, the Climate Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) used a statistical approach and recommended two different solar forcing scenarios for the simulations. The reference scenario was developed as the standard forcing, whereas the alternative forcing has lower solar activity (EXT CMIP6). In this study, we use both forcings in a set of experiments to explore the importance of the alternative CMIP6 solar forcing for future climate and ozone layer variability. In general, the difference in solar forcing scenarios is small, and thus most changes at the surface and at high altitudes are not significant. In addition, only the active phases of the Sun, which have the largest difference in amplitude of the forcing, are investigated. In this case, some statistically significant patterns emerge, mostly in the stratosphere, but still, the magnitude of the changes is not very large and a noticeable surface climate response to these changes is not expected and also not found. Our results indicate that low amplitude solar forcings such as the EXT CMIP6 or similar are not worthwhile considering during the next CMIP type of activities. The proposed solar irradiance decline does not represent any danger to the ozone layer.

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“…Apart from linear oscillatory theories, external and internal forcings can also drive tropical Pacific decadal variability. On the one hand, a few studies presume QD variability to be (at least partially) externally forced by solar activity variability considering their similar periodicities (e.g., Chunhan et al, 2021;Liang et al, 2021;Meehl et al, 2008Meehl et al, , 2009White & Liu, 2008a, 2008b. However, these results are highly model-dependent.…”

Section: Plain Language Summarymentioning

confidence: 99%