Emerging Water Scarcity Risks in Peruvian Glacier-Fed River Basins

Martinez, E Iglesias; Drenkhan, Fabián; Zogheib, C.; Ochoa‐Tocachi, B. F.; Buytaert, Wouter

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3696758

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“…The Cordilleras Vilcanota (246.8 km 2 glacierised area in 2020; from this study), Vilcabamba (100.4 km 2 ), and Urubamba (24.2 km 2 ) represent a combined glacierised area of 371.4 km 2 . These regions are relatively understudied in comparison to the Cordillera Blanca (which is larger than all three together); yet, they represent a water source for hundreds of thousands of people in the wider Cusco region, many of which are located in the city of Cusco (population 470,000) (Drenkhan et al, 2018;Martínez et al, 2020). Recent glacial lake outburst floods at Salkantaycocha in 2020 (Vilca et al, 2021) and Riticocha in 2010 (Drenkhan et al, 2019) provide stark reminders of the threat that climatic changes pose in this region.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Following the approach of Drenkhan et al (2018), we can contextualise this by noting that in our 2000-2020 study of volume change, the loss of 3.44 km 3 of water from the Cordillera Vilcanota represents ~84 years of water supply for the city of Cusco. Up to 33% of the population of Cusco rely on glacial meltwater during dry seasons (3% annually) (Martínez et al, 2020). Future ice melt is also unlikely to be even.…”

Section: Future Perspectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Multi-Decadal Glacier Area and Mass Balance Change in the Southern Peruvian Andes

et al. 2022

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Around 70% of the world’s tropical glaciers are located in Peru, and they are melting rapidly in response to climate change. The glaciers of the data-sparse Southern Peruvian Andes, comprising the Cordilleras Vilcanota, Vilcabamba, and Urubamba, are a primary water source for thousands of people living in the rural foothills, and support people throughout the wider Cusco region. Here, we calculate geodetic mass balance for the Cordillera Vilcanota (−0.48 ± 0.07 m w.e. yr−1) using the ASTER satellite archive and derive a total loss of 3.18 ± 0.44 Gt ice between 2000 and 2020. Glacierised area has shrunk rapidly since the 1970s (losses of 54, 56, and 64% for the Cordilleras Vilcanota, Vilcabamba, and Urubamba respectively) as a consequence of changing climatic patterns, with low-lying glaciers receding the most across all regions. We calculate a rise in the median elevation of glaciers ranging from 15.9 m per decade over the Quelccaya ice cap in the Cordillera Vilcanota, to 32.8 m per decade in the Cordillera Vilcabamba, over the period 1975 to 2020. This change implies an increased hazard potential as the mountain regions become destabilised, and will lead to increasing pressure on fresh water supply as meltwater streamflow decreases and river discharge becomes increasingly, and irreversibly, variable.

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