EMIC Intercomparison Project (EMIP–CO2): comparative analysis of EMIC simulations of climate, and of equilibrium and transient responses to atmospheric CO2 doubling

Petoukhov, Vladimir; Claußen, Martin; Berger, André; Crucifix, Michel; Eby, Michael; Елисеев, А. В.; Fichefet, Thierry; Ganopolski, Andrey; Goosse, Hugues; Kamenkovich, Igor; Мохов, И. И.; Montoya, Marisa; Mysak, Lawrence A.; Sokolov, Andrei P.; Stone, Peter H.; Wang, Z.; Weaver, Andrew J.

doi:10.1007/s00382-005-0042-3

Cited by 108 publications

(85 citation statements)

References 75 publications

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“…The thermal expansion of the ocean has been investigated by a spectrum of climate models of different complexity, ranging from zero-dimensional diffusion models (12,13) via Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMIC) (6,14) to comprehensive general circulation models (15,16). Although uncertainty remains, especially owing to uncertainty in the ocean circulation and thereby the distribution of heat within the ocean, the physical processes are relatively well understood even if not fully represented in all models.…”

Section: Modeled Components Of Sea Levelmentioning

confidence: 99%

The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming

Levermann

Clark

Marzeion

et al. 2013

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

264

224

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Global mean sea level has been steadily rising over the last century, is projected to increase by the end of this century, and will continue to rise beyond the year 2100 unless the current global mean temperature trend is reversed. Inertia in the climate and global carbon system, however, causes the global mean temperature to decline slowly even after greenhouse gas emissions have ceased, raising the question of how much sea-level commitment is expected for different levels of global mean temperature increase above preindustrial levels. Although sealevel rise over the last century has been dominated by ocean warming and loss of glaciers, the sensitivity suggested from records of past sea levels indicates important contributions should also be expected from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Uncertainties in the paleo-reconstructions, however, necessitate additional strategies to better constrain the sea-level commitment. Here we combine paleo-evidence with simulations from physical models to estimate the future sea-level commitment on a multimillennial time scale and compute associated regional sea-level patterns. Oceanic thermal expansion and the Antarctic Ice Sheet contribute quasi-linearly, with 0.4 m°C −1 and 1.2 m°C −1 of warming, respectively. The saturation of the contribution from glaciers is overcompensated by the nonlinear response of the Greenland Ice Sheet. As a consequence we are committed to a sea-level rise of approximately 2.3 m°C −1 within the next 2,000 y. Considering the lifetime of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, this imposes the need for fundamental adaptation strategies on multicentennial time scales.climate change | climate impacts | sea-level change S ea-level projections show a robust, albeit highly uncertain, increase by the end of this century (1, 2), and there is strong evidence that sea level will continue to rise beyond the year 2100 unless the current global mean temperature trend is reversed (3-6). At the same time, inertia in the climate and global carbon system causes the global mean temperature to decline slowly even after greenhouse gas emissions have ceased (6), raising the question of how much sea-level rise we are committed to on a multimillennial time scale for different levels of global mean temperature increase. During the 20th century, sea level rose by approximately 0.2 m (7, 8), and it is estimated to rise by significantly less than 2 m by 2100, even for the strongest scenarios considered (9). At the same time, past climate records suggest a sea-level sensitivity of as much as several meters per degree of warming during previous intervals of Earth history when global temperatures were similar to or warmer than present (10, 11). Although sea-level rise over the last century has been dominated by ocean warming and loss of glaciers (7), the sensitivity suggested from records of past sea level indicates important contributions from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Because of the uncertainties in the paleo-reconstructions, however, additional strategies are req...

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Section: Modeled Components Of Sea Levelmentioning

confidence: 99%

The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming

Levermann

Clark

Marzeion

et al. 2013

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

264

224

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Though a wide range of such models exists with varying emphasis on the complexity of individual components (Petoukhov et al, 2005), all have serious deficiencies. These range from missing processes, such as the dynamic evolution of the radiative effect of clouds and transport of sea-ice, to significant misfits in predicted monthly mean temperature and precipitation for the present-day climate.…”

Section: Earth System Models Of Intermediate Complexity (Emic) Providmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the reconstruction of palaeo-ice sheets: Recent advances and future challenges

Stokes

Tarasov

Blomdin

et al. 2015

Quaternary Science Reviews

151

104

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“…as function of period or wavelength only) maxima from long-term (∼30 days period) and synoptic-scale (2-6 days period) fields are not well separated (Van der Hoven, 1957;Oort and Taylor, 1969;Vinnichenko, 1970;Mitchell, 1976), in 2-D spectra (versus both period and wavelength) the gap is more pronounced (Fraedrich and Böttger, 1978). Even more, in a 3-D power spectrum, with phase velocity as a third dimension, the long-term field and the field of transient synoptic scale eddies form distinct and well-separated maxima (Petoukhov, 1991;Petoukhov et al, 1998Petoukhov et al, , 2003, indicating that they are governed by different physical processes. Therefore, splitting V into a large-scale and synoptic component and parameterizing the ensemble characteristics of the synoptic scale eddies in terms of the long-term field is principally allowed.…”

Section: Governing Equationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This different approach allows much coarser spatial and temporal discretizations, making SDAMs computationally efficient and allowing climate simulations up to multi-millennia timescales Bauer et al, 2004). For this reason, several of the Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) (Claussen et al, 2002;Petoukhov et al, 2005), including Climber-2 (Petoukhov et al, 2000;Ganopolski et al, 2001), IAP RAS (Petoukhov et al, 1998;Mokhov et al, 2002;Eliseev et al, 2008), MIT (Prinn et al, 1999;Kamenkovich et al, 2002) and UVic (Weaver et al, 2001), use statistical-dynamical atmosphere modules.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Three-dimensional parameterizations of the synoptic scale kinetic energy and momentum flux in the Earth's atmosphere

Coumou

Petoukhov

Елисеев

2011

Nonlin. Processes Geophys.

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Abstract. We present a new set of statistical-dynamical equations (SDEs) which can accurately reproduce the threedimensional atmospheric fields of synoptic scale kinetic energy and momentum flux. The set of equations is closed by finding proper parameterizations for the vertical macroturbulent diffusion coefficient and ageostrophic terms. The equations have been implemented in a new SD atmosphere model, named Aeolus. We show that the synoptic scale kinetic energy and momentum fluxes generated by the model are in good agreement with empirical data, which were derived from bandpass-filtered ERA-40 data. In addition to present-day climate, the model is tested for substantially colder (last glacial maximum) and warmer (2×CO 2 ) climates, and shown to be in agreement with general circulation model (GCM) results. With the derived equations, one can efficiently study the position and strength of storm tracks under different climate scenarios with calculation time a fraction of those of GCMs. This work prepares ground for the development of a new generation of fast Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity which are able to perform multimillennia simulations in a reasonable time frame while appropriately accounting for the climatic effect of storm tracks.

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EMIC Intercomparison Project (EMIP–CO2): comparative analysis of EMIC simulations of climate, and of equilibrium and transient responses to atmospheric CO2 doubling

Cited by 108 publications

References 75 publications

The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming

The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming

On the reconstruction of palaeo-ice sheets: Recent advances and future challenges

Three-dimensional parameterizations of the synoptic scale kinetic energy and momentum flux in the Earth's atmosphere

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