Emissions of greenhouse gases attributable to the activities of the land transport: modelling and analysis using I‐CIR stochastic diffusion—the case of Spain

Abstract

SUMMARYIn this study, carried out on the basis of the conclusions and methodological recommendations of the Fourth Assessment Report (2007) of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we consider the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG), and particularly those of CO 2 , attributable to the activities of land transport, for all sectors of the economy, as these constitute a significant proportion of total GHG emissions. In particular, the case of Spain is an example of a worrying situation in this respect, both in itself and in the context of the European Union. To analyse the evolution, in this case, of such emissions, to enable medium-term forecasts to be made and to obtain a model that will enable us to analyse the effects of possible corrector mechanisms, we have statistically fitted a inverse Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (I-CIR) type nonlinear stochastic diffusion process, on the basis of the real data measured for the period 1990-2004, during which the Kyoto protocol has been applicable. We have studied the evolution of the trend of these emissions using estimated trend functions, for which purpose probabilistic complements such as trend functions and stationary distribution are incorporated, and a statistical methodology (estimation and asymptotic inference) for this diffusion, these tools being necessary for the application of the analytical methodology proposed.

Modelling and forecasting vehicle stocks using the trends of stochastic Gompertz diffusion models: The case of Spain

“…By Zehna's theorem, the estimated conditional trend (ECT) and the estimated trend (ET) functions can be obtained from Equations (5) and (6) in the case of SHGDP by replacing the parameters by their estimators. Furthermore, we can obtain an approximated and asymptotic confidence interval of the ETF and ECTF of the SHGDP by means of the approximated and asymptotic confidence interval of the parameters given by Equations (16) and (17).…”

“…In addition, studies have been made on CO 2 emissions produced by the transport sector and the contribution of these to total greenhouse gas emissions in certain geographic areas. For example, Gutiérrez et al [5] analysed the case of Spain, which is a paradigmatic example of a violation of the targets set out in the Kyoto Protocol (1992), see Gutiérrez et al [6]. This study provides comparative data for the transport sector, with respect to the emissions of greenhouse gases, in the U.S.A., the EU and Spain, and models the evolution of these emissions in Spain.…”

Modelling aboveground tree biomass while achieving the additivity property

“…Although there are still doubts about the extent of climate change, there is a general agreement about the damaging effect of the CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere and its relation to global warming and the greenhouse effect. For example, more than 70% of the emissions of greenhouse gasses in the last decade in Spain correspond to CO 2 (see for example Gutiérrez et al 2008). As forestry activities mainly affect the exchange of CO 2 between the land and the atmosphere, the management of these activities offers an opportunity to isolate atmospheric carbon that constitutes a portion of a region's greenhouse gas contribution.…”

The effect of nested grid sampling on the parameter estimation of a spatial Gompertz diffusion

“…This methodology has been discussed by several authors in different situations, such as concerning diffusion processes. For example, using continuous sampling, the Fisher information matrix was obtained in Gutiérrez et al (2008b) for a I-CIR diffusion (the inverse Cox-Ingersoll-Ross diffusion model) to study the asymptotic behavior of the estimators. In the multivariate case, Dunn and Brisbin (1985) obtained the Fisher information matrix for the multivariate OrnsteinUhlenbeck diffusion process based on discrete sampling.…”