Using extensive diary data from people taking their driver's license exam, the authors investigated the role of time in affective forecasting accuracy. Replicating existing findings, participants grossly overestimated the intensity and duration of their negative affect after failure and only slightly overestimated the intensity and duration of their positive affect after success. Extending existing findings, participants accurately predicted a decrease of their affective reactions over time but underestimated the speed with which this decrease would occur. In addition, they showed greater forecasting accuracy for positive affect than negative affect when the exam was distant and greater forecasting accuracy for negative affect than positive affect when the exam was close. The motivational processes underlying these findings are being discussed.Keywords: affective experiences; affective forecasting; temporal biases P redicting how we will feel in response to future events is a central component of our self-knowledge. Small and big decisions-whether to drink another beer, whom to marry, whether to have children-often depend on our predictions about how pleasant or unpleasant these events would make us feel, specifically our affective forecasts . The accuracy of these affective forecasts has recently at Vrije Universiteit 34820 on November 28, 2010 psp.sagepub.com Downloaded from forecasting accuracy. By providing participants with an opportunity to forecast their affective reactions on several days before the focal event and by following their affective experiences for several days after the event had happened, we compared people's affective forecasts and their affective experiences over time. This approach allows us to recognize time as an important determinant of forecasting accuracy through the investigation of both the time course of affective forecasts and experiences and the influence of temporal distance to the focal event on forecasting accuracy.
Temporal Influences on Forecasting AccuracyResearch on forecasting accuracy compares people's predictions about how they will feel in response to an event in the future with their actual affective experiences (Buehler & McFarland, 2001;Gilbert et al., 1998;Wilson, Wheatley, Meyers, Gilbert, & Axsom, 2000). Typically, this research takes what we would like to call a time slice approach. It computes the difference between an affective forecast made at one point in time before a focal event takes place and an assessment of the affective experience at one (e.g., Gilbert et al., 1998) or several points in time after the focal event has taken place (e.g., Wilson et al., 2000).Two basic findings have emerged from this approach. First, people overestimate the intensity and duration of their affective reactions to a variety of focal events, committing the impact bias . Second, the impact bias shows a positivenegative asymmetry, because it is much more pronounced for negative events than positive events (e.g., Buehler & McFarland, 2001;Gilbert et al., 1998).Often the impact...