Investigating the Role of Time in Affective Forecasting: Temporal Influences on Forecasting Accuracy

Abstract

Using extensive diary data from people taking their driver's license exam, the authors investigated the role of time in affective forecasting accuracy. Replicating existing findings, participants grossly overestimated the intensity and duration of their negative affect after failure and only slightly overestimated the intensity and duration of their positive affect after success. Extending existing findings, participants accurately predicted a decrease of their affective reactions over time but underestimated the speed with which this decrease would occur. In addition, they showed greater forecasting accuracy for positive affect than negative affect when the exam was distant and greater forecasting accuracy for negative affect than positive affect when the exam was close. The motivational processes underlying these findings are being discussed.Keywords: affective experiences; affective forecasting; temporal biases P redicting how we will feel in response to future events is a central component of our self-knowledge. Small and big decisions-whether to drink another beer, whom to marry, whether to have children-often depend on our predictions about how pleasant or unpleasant these events would make us feel, specifically our affective forecasts . The accuracy of these affective forecasts has recently at Vrije Universiteit 34820 on November 28, 2010 psp.sagepub.com Downloaded from forecasting accuracy. By providing participants with an opportunity to forecast their affective reactions on several days before the focal event and by following their affective experiences for several days after the event had happened, we compared people's affective forecasts and their affective experiences over time. This approach allows us to recognize time as an important determinant of forecasting accuracy through the investigation of both the time course of affective forecasts and experiences and the influence of temporal distance to the focal event on forecasting accuracy. Temporal Influences on Forecasting AccuracyResearch on forecasting accuracy compares people's predictions about how they will feel in response to an event in the future with their actual affective experiences (Buehler & McFarland, 2001;Gilbert et al., 1998;Wilson, Wheatley, Meyers, Gilbert, & Axsom, 2000). Typically, this research takes what we would like to call a time slice approach. It computes the difference between an affective forecast made at one point in time before a focal event takes place and an assessment of the affective experience at one (e.g., Gilbert et al., 1998) or several points in time after the focal event has taken place (e.g., Wilson et al., 2000).Two basic findings have emerged from this approach. First, people overestimate the intensity and duration of their affective reactions to a variety of focal events, committing the impact bias . Second, the impact bias shows a positivenegative asymmetry, because it is much more pronounced for negative events than positive events (e.g., Buehler & McFarland, 2001;Gilbert et al., 1998).Often the impact...

Empathic forecasting: How do we predict other people's feelings?

“…Although we did not directly compare whether it was stronger for negative events, these results are in line with earlier research (Finkenauer et al, 2007;Gilbert et al, 1998), highlighting that the same processes that lead to the impact bias in affective forecasts may lead to the impact bias in empathic forecasts. Future research should examine whether processes such as immune neglect and focalism, which underlie the impact bias in affective forecasts, also explain the occurrence of the impact bias in empathic forecasts (Wilson & Gilbert, 2005).…”

“…Since researchers began to investigate the accuracy of affective forecasts, however, it has become clear that affective forecasts are biased (e.g., Gilbert, Pinel, Wilson, Blumberg, & Wheatley, 1998;Mitchell, Thompson, Peterson, & Cronk, 1997;. Failing an EMPATHIC FORECASTING 979 exam may be disappointing but the experienced disappointment is less intense and fades much faster than students' forecast (Buehler & McFarland, 2001;Finkenauer, Gallucci, van Dijk, & Pollmann, 2007). This tendency to overestimate the affective impact that future events will have on our affective experience is called the impact bias (Gilbert, Driver-Linn, & Wilson, 2002).…”

“…This may elicit feelings of not being understood in the confiding person and, even more importantly, may undermine the potential beneficial effects of biased affective forecasting. To illustrate, anticipating the negative consequences of a future event can motivate people to work hard to avoid a negative outcome of the event (Finkenauer et al, 2007). Downgrading the need to worry may have the paradoxical effect of reducing the other's motivation to work hard, thereby possibly even increasing the likelihood of a negative outcome (cf.…”

Forecasting and Backcasting: Predicting the Impact of Events on the Future

“…One approach is by forecasting-the consumer first considers how she is likely to feel in response to the event ("I'll be very unhappy if the Red Sox lose today") and then considers the effects of future circumstances, such as the passage of time and how she is likely to feel in a future period ("But I'll probably feel better in a few days with my birthday coming up"). Forecasting, as an approach to predicting the hedonic impact of a future event, has been widely studied in the literature (Coughlan and Connolly 2001;Dunn, Wilson, and Gilbert 2003;Finkenauer et al 2007;Gaunt, Sindic, and Leyens 2005;Gilbert et al 1998Gilbert et al , 2004Kahneman and Snell 1992;Loewenstein and Frederick 1997;Mellers 2000;Read and Van Leeuwen 1998;Snell, Gibbs, and Varey 1995;Wilson et al 2000Wilson et al , 2005. A second approach that we propose for predicting the hedonic impact of a future event-backcasting-is one that has received much less attention.…”

“…Although prior research tells us something about how much people consider these three types of information when predicting the hedonic impact of an event, that research has typically emphasized a forecasting approach to hedonic prediction by (a) explicitly directing participants to forecast-that is, by asking participants to predict their feelings immediately following an event and then to predict their feelings in some future period after the event (e.g., in Finkenauer et al 2007;Gaunt et al 2005;Gilbert et al 2004;Wilson et al 2000Wilson et al , 2005-or (b) asking participants to consider the hedonic impact of a current event in some future period (e.g., in Coughlan and Connolly 2001;Dunn et al 2003;Gilbert et al 1998;Kahneman and Snell 1992;Loewenstein and Frederick 1997;Mellers 2000;Read and Van Leeuwen 1998;Snell et al 1995).…”