COPD is the fourth leading cause of death in the United States and causes . 2.5 million deaths worldwide each year. [1][2][3] The most frequent cause of death in advanced COPD is respiratory failure, but in mild and moderate COPD, lung cancer and cardiovascular diseases account for two-thirds of the deaths. 4 GOLD (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease) defi nes COPD as a disease state characterized by the presence of airway obstruction that is not fully reversible. 5 In these patients, airfl ow obstruction is caused by a mixture of small airways disease (obstructive bronchiolitis) and parenchymal destruction (emphysema); the relative contributions vary from person to person. Airway obstruction, readily determined by spirometry, has been shown to predict an increased mortality rate in the general population. 6 Emphysema has been extensively studied physiologically, pathologically, and at autopsy, but not until recent advances in CT scan technology has there been a reliable means for its in vivo diagnosis and characterization. However, data regarding the signifi cance of CT scan-detected emphysema in deter mining outcomes are scarce. Studies have shown that the presence of emphysema on low-dose chest CT scan in a cohort participating in a lung cancer screening study is an independent risk factor for lung cancer. 7,8 A study that was limited to patients with lung cancer showed that CT scan-detected emphysema, but not airway obstruction, was associated with a worse prognosis. 9 Recently, the presence of emphysema on a CT scan has been associated with an increase in mortality in a small cohort of patients with COPD, most of whom entered the study in advanced stages of the disease. 10 To date, no relationship between emphysema as identifi ed on chest CT scan and mortality in the general population or in asymptomatic smokers has been reported. In the present study, we explored whether the presence and extent of emphysema detected on low-dose CT scans are risk factors for mortality from COPD or lung cancer among a large cohort of asymptomatic smokers.Objective: Our objective was to assess the usefulness of emphysema scores in predicting death from COPD and lung cancer. Methods: Emphysema was assessed with low-dose CT scans performed on 9,047 men and women for whom age and smoking history were documented. Each scan was scored according to the presence of emphysema as follows: none, mild, moderate, or marked. Follow-up time was calculated from time of CT scan to time of death or December 31, 2007, whichever came fi rst. Cox regression analysis was used to calculate the hazard ratio (HR) of emphysema as a predictor of death. Results: Median age was 65 years, 4,433 (49%) were men, and 4,133 (46%) were currently smoking or had quit within 5 years. Emphysema was identifi ed in 2,637 (29%) and was a signifi cant predictor of death from COPD (HR, 9.3; 95% CI, 4.3-20.2; P , .0001) and from lung cancer (HR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.1-2.5; P 5 .013), even when adjusted for age and smoking history. Conclusions: Visual asses...