The article discusses the temperatures of the main ethnic groups in the Baltic states: Estonians, Latvians, Lithuanians, and their three Russian-speaking communities, and the Latgalian and Polish minority groups in Latvia and Lithuania, respectively. The study uses a triangulated methodology that includes a survey questionnaire for quantitative study and an associated protocol for a semi-structured focus group interview. The aim of the methodology is to make the notion of ethnic temperature quantitatively assessable, while retaining the opportunity for a rich qualitative description to understand its nature. The quantitative analysis confirms the wide divergence of subgroups within each ethnic group, each of which has a different ethnic temperature. The (intergroup) interaction of the members of these subgroups influences both the average temperature of the in-group and the temperatures of significant out-groups. The findings are interpreted to forecast the nature of ethnic processes in the Baltic states.
IntroductionThe recent history of the Baltic nations is a textbook example of changes in ethnic temperature. Before WWII, the Baltic states were very mono-ethnic, with minorities of less than 10% of the total populations. Lithuania had a territorial conflict with Poland in which the Polish minority played an active part, while the other two Baltic countries did not have significant minority-majority conflicts.All three were annexed by the Soviet Union just before WWII and were incorporated into the Soviet Union. During the Soviet time, Estonians, Latvians and Lithuanians seemed relatively cold, there were no major revolts, life was organised along Soviet lines and Soviet ideology was propagated in education, media and culture. The Soviet power encouraged immigration from the other parts of the Soviet Union. As a result of this process, large Russian-speaking communities were formed in Latvia and Estonia, which amounted to 34% and 30% of the populations, respectively, at the time of the collapse of the Soviet Union.These Russian-speaking communities were multi-ethnic, Russians making up the largest share, but also including many Ukrainians, Belarusians and members of other ethnicities. Some of them were Russian-ethnic bilingual; some had already shifted to Russian prior to immigration to the Baltic states, while others shifted to Russian while in the Baltic states. The Russian-speaking population was a mobile, ethnically cold category