Empirical evidence for North Pacific regime shifts in 1977 and 1989

Hare, Steven R.; Mantua, Nathan J.

doi:10.1016/s0079-6611(00)00033-1

Cited by 1,323 publications

(1,173 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…There are several examples of nonlinear system changes reported in literature (Hare and Mantua 2000, Heymans et al 2007, deYoung 2008, Kenny et al 2009). Here, we discuss two examples from the past with impacts relevant for today and in the future.…”

Section: Examples Of Past Nonlinearitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Past and future challenges in managing European seas

Blenckner¹,

Kannen²,

Barausse³

et al. 2015

E&S

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ABSTRACT. Marine environments have undergone large-scale changes in recent decades as a result of multiple anthropogenic pressures, such as overfishing, eutrophication, habitat fragmentation, etc., causing often nonlinear ecosystem responses. At the same time, management institutions lack the appropriate measures to address these abrupt transformations. We focus on existing examples from social-ecological systems of European seas that can be used to inform and advise future management. Examples from the Black Sea and the Baltic Sea on long-term ecosystem changes caused by eutrophication and fisheries, as well as changes in management institutions, illustrate nonlinear dynamics in social-ecological systems. Furthermore, we present two major future challenges, i.e., climate change and energy intensification, that could further increase the potential for nonlinear changes in the near future. Practical tools to address these challenges are presented, such as ensuring learning, flexibility, and networking in decision-making processes across sectors and scales. A combination of risk analysis with a scenario-planning approach might help to identify the risks of ecosystem changes early on and may frame societal changes to inform decision-making structures to proactively prevent drastic surprises in European seas.

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Section: Examples Of Past Nonlinearitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Past and future challenges in managing European seas

Blenckner¹,

Kannen²,

Barausse³

et al. 2015

E&S

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“…It is now widely accepted that a climatic regime shift transpired in the North Pacific Ocean in the winter of 1976-1977 [14,15]. Trenberth et al [16] found that there were increases in temperatures and sea surface temperatures along the western coast of North America and Alaska, as well as changes in coastal rainfall and streamflow.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial and Temporal Variations of Precipitation Extremes and Seasonality over China from 1961~2013

Tao

Wang

Song

et al. 2018

Water

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Using the 0.5 • × 0.5 • gridded Chinese ground precipitation dataset from 1961-2013, spatial and temporal variations in precipitation extremes, total precipitation, the seasonality of precipitation and their linkages in the context of climate change are investigated using the Mann-Kendall trend test, Pettitt change-point test and correlation analysis. The investigation focuses on four extreme indices, i.e., the annual maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD), the annual maximum number of consecutive wet days (CWD), the annual total precipitation when daily precipitation is greater than 95th percentile (R95pTOT), and the maximum 1-day precipitation (RX1day). The results show that precipitation extremes increased in northwestern China, especially Xinjiang, Tibet and Qinghai (CWD, R95pTOT and RX1day), and scattered parts of southeastern China (R95pTOT and RX1day), but decreased over considerable parts of southwestern China (CWD) and some small parts of northern China (CWD, R95pTOT and RX1day); the spatial patterns of the trends in precipitation extremes and that of total precipitation exhibit considerable similarity over China, which indicates the close relationship between changes in precipitation extremes and total precipitation; change points are detected in different periods ranging from early 1970s to early 2000s for different regions and extreme precipitation indices, and the spatial patterns of the abrupt changes of extreme indices are similar to those of the trends in extreme indices; the concentration index (CI) is strongly positively correlated with R95pTOT and RX1day in most areas in northern China (from the northeast to the northwest) and southwestern China (including Sichuan, Chongqing Guizhou and Guangxi), which means for these regions, the temporal heterogeneity of daily precipitation over a year is dominated by heavy rainfall amounts. The seasonality index of precipitation (SI) is positively related to R95pTOT and RX1day over most areas above 30 • N, indicating that heavy precipitation events have a better chance to occur in places with a strong seasonal variation in annual precipitation in these areas, but for most areas below 30 • N, the positive relationship is not significant.

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“…Indices of winter atmospheric and oceanic conditions, in conjunction with other parameters of ecosystems, have been used to identify shifts in climatic forcing and ecosystem response at decadal time scales (e.g., Trenberth and Hurrell, 1995;Mantua et al, 1997;Francis et al, 1998;Springer, 1998;Hare and Mantua, 2000;McFarlane et al, 2000;Hollowed et al, 2001). Two of these so-called ''regime shifts'' have been identified in the past 30 years.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Two of these so-called ''regime shifts'' have been identified in the past 30 years. One occurred in the winter of 1976-1977, in which the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) underwent a strong transition and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) underwent a moderate transition; the second shift occurred in the winter of 1988-1989 when the PDO switched to a more or less neutral state, and the AO underwent a strong, persistent change (Ebbesmeyer et al, 1991;Hare and Francis, 1995;Sugimoto and Tadokoro, 1998;Beamish et al, 1999;Brodeur et al, 1999a;Hare and Mantua, 2000). Both the AO and the PDO are related to variability in the climate of the southeastern Bering Sea (Overland et al, 1999).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change and control of the southeastern Bering Sea pelagic ecosystem

Hunt

Stabeno

Walters

et al. 2002

Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography

501

385

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We propose a new hypothesis, the Oscillating Control Hypothesis (OCH), which predicts that pelagic ecosystem function in the southeastern Bering Sea will alternate between primarily bottom-up control in cold regimes and primarily top-down control in warm regimes. The timing of spring primary production is determined predominately by the timing of ice retreat. Late ice retreat (late March or later) leads to an early, ice-associated bloom in cold water (e.g., 1995, 1997, 1999), whereas no ice, or early ice retreat before mid-March, leads to an open-water bloom in May or June in warm water (e.g., 1996, 1998, 2000). Zooplankton populations are not closely coupled to the spring bloom, but are sensitive to water temperature. In years when the spring bloom occurs in cold water, low temperatures limit the production of zooplankton, the survival of larval/juvenile fish, and their recruitment into the populations of species of large piscivorous fish, such as walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma), Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) and arrowtooth flounder (Atheresthes stomias). When continued over decadal scales, this will lead to bottom-up limitation and a decreased biomass of piscivorous fish. Alternatively, in periods when the bloom occurs in warm water, zooplankton populations should grow rapidly, providing plentiful prey for larval and juvenile fish. Abundant zooplankton will support strong recruitment of fish and will lead to abundant predatory fish that control forage fish, including, in the case of pollock, their own juveniles. Piscivorous marine birds and pinnipeds may achieve higher production of young and survival in cold regimes, when there is less competition from large piscivorous fish for coldwater forage fish such as capelin (Mallotus villosus). Piscivorous seabirds and pinnipeds also may be expected to have high productivity in periods of transition from cold regimes to warm regimes, when young of large predatory species of fish are numerous enough to provide forage. The OCH predicts that the ability of large predatory fish populations to sustain fishing pressure will vary between warm and cold regimes.The OCH points to the importance of the timing of ice retreat and water temperatures during the spring bloom for the productivity of zooplankton, and the degree and direction of coupling between zooplankton and forage fish. in the biomass of large piscivorous fish and a concurrent decline in the biomass of forage fish, including age-1 walleye pollock, particularly over the southern portion of the shelf. Populations of northern fur seals (Callorhinus ursinus) and seabirds such as kittiwakes (Rissa spp.) at the Pribilof Islands have declined, most probably in response to a diminished prey base. The available evidence suggests that these changes are unlikely the result of a decrease in total annual new primary production, though the possibility of reduced post-bloom production during summer remains. An ecosystem approach to management of the Bering Sea and its fisheries is of great importance if all o...

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Empirical evidence for North Pacific regime shifts in 1977 and 1989

Cited by 1,323 publications

References 44 publications

Past and future challenges in managing European seas

Past and future challenges in managing European seas

Spatial and Temporal Variations of Precipitation Extremes and Seasonality over China from 1961~2013

Climate change and control of the southeastern Bering Sea pelagic ecosystem

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