Abstract:The fourth year of the COVID-19 pandemic without decreasing trends in the global numbers of new daily cases, high numbers of circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants and re-infections together with pessimistic predictions for the Omicron wave duration force studies about the endemic stage of the disease. The global trends were illustrated with the use the accumulated numbers of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths, the percentages of fully vaccinated people and boosters and the results of calculation of the e… Show more
“…The characteristics, corresponding to the long period (1 January–10 September 2023; T 1 = 253 days), are shown by ‘circles’; to the short period (16 May–10 September 2023; T 2 = 119 days), by ‘crosses’; and to the last 28 days of 2023, by ‘triangles’. Zero values and cases when CFR cannot be calculated are not shown in Figure 1. Figure 1. Results of calculations (markers) of the average daily numbers of cases DCC (blue) and deaths DDC (black) per million and case fatality risks ( CFRs ) (red) for three different periods in 2023 and comparison with the values estimated in [9] (dashed lines) and flu mortality (dotted magenta lines). The characteristics, corresponding to the long period (1 January–10 September 2023; T 1 = 253 days), are shown by ‘circles’; to the short period (16 May–10 September 2023; T 2 = 119 days), by ‘crosses’; and to the last 28 days of 2023, by ‘triangles’.…”
Section: Resultsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Results of calculations (markers) of the average daily numbers of cases DCC (blue) and deaths DDC (black) per million and case fatality risks ( CFRs ) (red) for three different periods in 2023 and comparison with the values estimated in [9] (dashed lines) and flu mortality (dotted magenta lines). The characteristics, corresponding to the long period (1 January–10 September 2023; T 1 = 253 days), are shown by ‘circles’; to the short period (16 May–10 September 2023; T 2 = 119 days), by ‘crosses’; and to the last 28 days of 2023, by ‘triangles’.…”
Section: Resultsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The high numbers of circulating severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants [1–3] and re-infected people [4–6], the lack of decreasing trends in the global numbers of deaths [7], and the expected very long duration of the Omicron wave [8] caused an assumption that the pathogen will circulate forever, which was supported by a mathematical model [9]. Some endemic characteristics of the SARS-CoV-2 disease were estimated in [9] with the use of global accumulated numbers of COVID-19 cases V and deaths D , registered in [10] from 1 January 2022 to 6 December 2022.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…In this study, we will try to check the estimations presented in [9] with the use of data reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2023 [7]. Unfortunately, currently ‘reported cases do not accurately represent infection rates due to the reduction in testing and reporting globally’ [11].…”
Current World Health Organization (WHO) reports claim a decline in COVID-19 testing and reporting of new infections. To discuss the consequences of ignoring severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, the endemic characteristics of the disease in 2023 with the ones estimated before using 2022 data sets are compared. The accumulated numbers of cases and deaths reported to the WHO by the 10 most infected countries and global figures were used to calculate the average daily numbers of cases DCC and deaths DDC per capita and case fatality rates (CFRs = DDC/DCC) for two periods in 2023. In some countries, the DDC values can be higher than the upper 2022 limit and exceed the seasonal influenza mortality. The increase in CFR in 2023 shows that SARS-CoV-2 infection is still dangerous. The numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths per capita in 2022 and 2023 do not demonstrate downward trends with the increase in the percentages of fully vaccinated people and boosters. The reasons may be both rapid mutations of the coronavirus, which reduced the effectiveness of vaccines and led to a large number of re-infections, and inappropriate management.
“…The characteristics, corresponding to the long period (1 January–10 September 2023; T 1 = 253 days), are shown by ‘circles’; to the short period (16 May–10 September 2023; T 2 = 119 days), by ‘crosses’; and to the last 28 days of 2023, by ‘triangles’. Zero values and cases when CFR cannot be calculated are not shown in Figure 1. Figure 1. Results of calculations (markers) of the average daily numbers of cases DCC (blue) and deaths DDC (black) per million and case fatality risks ( CFRs ) (red) for three different periods in 2023 and comparison with the values estimated in [9] (dashed lines) and flu mortality (dotted magenta lines). The characteristics, corresponding to the long period (1 January–10 September 2023; T 1 = 253 days), are shown by ‘circles’; to the short period (16 May–10 September 2023; T 2 = 119 days), by ‘crosses’; and to the last 28 days of 2023, by ‘triangles’.…”
Section: Resultsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Results of calculations (markers) of the average daily numbers of cases DCC (blue) and deaths DDC (black) per million and case fatality risks ( CFRs ) (red) for three different periods in 2023 and comparison with the values estimated in [9] (dashed lines) and flu mortality (dotted magenta lines). The characteristics, corresponding to the long period (1 January–10 September 2023; T 1 = 253 days), are shown by ‘circles’; to the short period (16 May–10 September 2023; T 2 = 119 days), by ‘crosses’; and to the last 28 days of 2023, by ‘triangles’.…”
Section: Resultsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The high numbers of circulating severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants [1–3] and re-infected people [4–6], the lack of decreasing trends in the global numbers of deaths [7], and the expected very long duration of the Omicron wave [8] caused an assumption that the pathogen will circulate forever, which was supported by a mathematical model [9]. Some endemic characteristics of the SARS-CoV-2 disease were estimated in [9] with the use of global accumulated numbers of COVID-19 cases V and deaths D , registered in [10] from 1 January 2022 to 6 December 2022.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…In this study, we will try to check the estimations presented in [9] with the use of data reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2023 [7]. Unfortunately, currently ‘reported cases do not accurately represent infection rates due to the reduction in testing and reporting globally’ [11].…”
Current World Health Organization (WHO) reports claim a decline in COVID-19 testing and reporting of new infections. To discuss the consequences of ignoring severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, the endemic characteristics of the disease in 2023 with the ones estimated before using 2022 data sets are compared. The accumulated numbers of cases and deaths reported to the WHO by the 10 most infected countries and global figures were used to calculate the average daily numbers of cases DCC and deaths DDC per capita and case fatality rates (CFRs = DDC/DCC) for two periods in 2023. In some countries, the DDC values can be higher than the upper 2022 limit and exceed the seasonal influenza mortality. The increase in CFR in 2023 shows that SARS-CoV-2 infection is still dangerous. The numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths per capita in 2022 and 2023 do not demonstrate downward trends with the increase in the percentages of fully vaccinated people and boosters. The reasons may be both rapid mutations of the coronavirus, which reduced the effectiveness of vaccines and led to a large number of re-infections, and inappropriate management.
“…The increase of the tests per case ratio needs additional resources, since the number of new cases is very high. Nevertheless, it could be an effective tool to control the SARS-COV-2 infection in Japan and other countries especially now, when the signs of endemic stage this disease have appeared [30].…”
Objective.
Record numbers of new COVID-19 cases and deaths registered in Japan and European countries in early 2022 aroused new questions about methods of overcoming the pandemic. The pandemic waves in Japan, Ukraine, USA, and Hong Kong in 2020, 2021, 2022 will be compared. Possible influence of testing and vaccination levels will be investigated.
Methods.
The smoothed daily numbers of new cases and deaths per capita, the ratio of these characteristics and the non-linear correlation with the tests per case ratio were used.
Results.
As in other countries, the deaths per case ratio in Japan decreases with the increase of the vaccination level despite increasing daily numbers cases and deaths.
Conclusions
Non-linear correlation revealed, that the daily number of new cases drastically decreases with the increase of the tests per case ratio.
Implications for Public Health.
Increasing the level of testing and adhering to quarantine restrictions for the entire population, including vaccinated people, can be recommended to reduce the negative consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic.
To date, five variants of concern (VOCs) of SARS-CoV-2 have emerged that show increased fitness and/or immune evasion. While the continuously evolving escape from humoral immune responses has been analyzed in detail, adaptation of SARS-CoV-2 to human innate immune defenses such as autophagy is less understood. Here, we demonstrate that mutation T9I in the structural envelope (E) protein confers autophagy resistance of Omicron VOCs (BA.1, BA.5 and XBB.1.5) compared to 2020 SARS-CoV-2 or the Delta VOC. Mechanistic analyses revealed that Omicron-associated E T9I shows increased inhibition of autophagic flux and colocalization/interaction with autophagosomes, thus shielding incoming SARS-CoV-2 S pseudotyped virions from autophagy. Rare Omicron isolates carrying ancestral E T9 remain sensitive towards autophagy whereas recombinant early 2020 SARS-CoV-2 expressing E T9I shows increases resistance against autophagy. Our data indicate that the E T9I mutation drives autophagy resistance of the Omicron variants and thus may have contributed to their effective spread.
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