See page 3395 for the editorial comment on this article (doi:10.1093/eurheartj/eht365)
AimsWhether patients with hypertensive preclinical cardiovascular disease (CVD) are at higher risk of incident diabetes has never been studied.
Methods and resultsWe assessed incident diabetes in 4176 hypertensive non-diabetic patients (age 58.7 + 8.9 years, 58% male) with ≥1 year follow-up (median: 3.57 years; inter-quartile range: 2.04-7.25). Left ventricular (LV) hypertrophy (LVH) was defined as LV mass index (LVMi) ≥51 g/m 2.7 . Carotid atherosclerosis (CA) was defined as intima-media thickness .1.5 mm. During follow-up, diabetes developed in 393 patients (9.4%), more frequently in those with than without initial LVH or CA (odds ratio ¼ 1.97 and 1.67, respectively; both P , 0.0001). In the Cox regression, the presence of either initial LVH or CA was associated with higher hazard of diabetes [hazards ratio (HR) ¼ 1.30 and 1.38, respectively; both P ¼ 0.03], independently of the type and number of anti-hypertensive medications, initial systolic blood pressure (P , 0.001), body mass index, fasting glucose, family history of diabetes (all P , 0.0001), and therapy with b-blockers. The presence of one of the, or both, markers of preclinical CVD increased the chance of incident diabetes by 63 or 64%, respectively (both P , 0.002), independently of significant confounders, a result that was confirmed (HR ¼ 1.70 or 1.93, respectively; both P , 0.0001) using ATPIII metabolic syndrome (HR ¼ 2.73; P , 0.0001) in the Cox model.
ConclusionInitial LVH and CA are significant predictors of new onset diabetes in a large population of treated hypertensive patients, independently of initial metabolic profile, anti-hypertensive therapy, and other significant covariates. This sequence may be attributable to risk factors common to preclinical CVD and diabetes, but a vascular origin of diabetes cannot be excluded.--