Energetics of transient-eddy and inter-member variabilities in global and regional climate model simulations

Nikiéma, Oumarou; Laprise, René; Dugas, B.

doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3918-0

Cited by 6 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…In Leduc et al (2019) the authors state that "In the case of a climate system under transient forcing, the use of [IMV equation] to assess temporal variability using the inter-member spread involves weaker assumptions than calculating the residual temporal variability from detrended time series." (Leduc et al, 2019, p. 681), based on the study by Nikiéma et al (2018). A recent publication by Wang et al (2019) even concludes that the IMV of winter sea level pressure over Eurasia in a SMILE is driven by the same mechanisms as observed IAV via an EOF analysis.…”

Section: Projected Changes In Internal Variability and The Connectionmentioning

confidence: 95%

“…Using IMV is an elegant way to get around this challenge. Some recent publications support the concept of using IMV as an approximation of IAV, although the two have different background meanings: while IAV has a physical meaning and represents the variability of a consecutive sequence of weather phenomena, IMV is a measure of variability without a direct physical meaning (Nikiéma et al, 2018).…”

Section: Projected Changes In Internal Variability and The Connectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Comparing interannual variability in three regional single-model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs) over Europe

et al. 2020

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Abstract. For sectors like agriculture, hydrology and ecology, increasing interannual variability (IAV) can have larger impacts than changes in the mean state, whereas decreasing IAV in winter implies that the coldest seasons warm more than the mean. IAV is difficult to reliably quantify in single realizations of climate (observations and single-model realizations) as they are too short, and represent a combination of external forcing and IAV. Single-model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs) are powerful tools to overcome this problem, as they provide many realizations of past and future climate and thus a larger sample size to robustly evaluate and quantify changes in IAV. We use three SMILE-based regional climate models (CanESM-CRCM, ECEARTH-RACMO and CESM-CCLM) to investigate downscaled changes in IAV of summer and winter temperature and precipitation, the number of heat waves, and the maximum length of dry periods over Europe. An evaluation against the observational data set E-OBS reveals that all models reproduce observational IAV reasonably well, although both under- and overestimation of observational IAV occur in all models in a few cases. We further demonstrate that SMILEs are essential to robustly quantify changes in IAV since some individual realizations show significant IAV changes, whereas others do not. Thus, a large sample size, i.e., information from all members of SMILEs, is needed to robustly quantify the significance of IAV changes. Projected IAV changes in temperature over Europe are in line with existing literature: increasing variability in summer and stable to decreasing variability in winter. Here, we further show that summer and winter precipitation, as well as the two summer extreme indicators mostly also show these seasonal changes.

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Section: Projected Changes In Internal Variability and The Connectionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Section: Projected Changes In Internal Variability and The Connectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparing interannual variability in three regional single-model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs) over Europe

et al. 2020

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“…where N is the ensemble size (N = 50), X it the monthly mean temperature over the given time period for member i and year t, andX ot the ensemble mean (average over all members) at year t. Assuming ergodicity between temporal and inter-member variances (Nikiéma et al 2017), σ a,b…”

Section: Projected Changes In Temperature Interannual Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

The ClimEx Project: A 50-Member Ensemble of Climate Change Projections at 12-km Resolution over Europe and Northeastern North America with the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5)

Leduc

Mailhot

Frigon

et al. 2019

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

102

158

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The Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) Large Ensemble (CRCM5-LE) consists of a dynamically downscaled version of the CanESM2 50-member initial-conditions ensemble (CanESM2-LE). The downscaling was performed at 12-km resolution over two domains, Europe (EU) and northeastern North America (NNA), and the simulations extend from 1950 to 2099, following the RCP8.5 scenario. In terms of validation, warm biases are found over the EU and NNA domains during summer, whereas during winter cold and warm biases appear over EU and NNA, respectively. For precipitation, simulations are generally wetter than the observations but slight dry biases also occur in summer. Climate change projections for 2080–99 (relative to 2000–19) show temperature changes reaching 8°C in summer over some parts of Europe, and exceeding 12°C in northern Québec during winter. For precipitation, central Europe will become much dryer during summer (−2 mm day−1) and wetter during winter (>1.2 mm day−1). Similar changes are observed over NNA, although summer drying is not as prominent. Projected changes in temperature interannual variability were also investigated, generally showing increasing and decreasing variability during summer and winter, respectively. Temperature variability is found to increase by more than 70% in some parts of central Europe during summer and to increase by 80% in the northernmost part of Québec during the month of May as the snow cover becomes subject to high year-to-year variability in the future. Finally, CanESM2-LE and CRCM5-LE are compared with respect to extreme precipitation, showing evidence that the higher resolution of CRCM5-LE allows a more realistic representation of local extremes, especially over coastal and mountainous regions.

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“…There is also evidence, as highlighted in reviews by Westra et al (2014) and Madsen et al (2014), that anthropogenic climate change is also likely leading to an increase in recorded subdaily precipitation extremes. For instance, studies showed increases for durations ranging from multiple hours to days for North America (Brommer et al 2007;Burn et al 2011;Kunkel et al 2013;Muschinski and Katz 2013) and for Europe (Arnone et al 2013;Leahy and Kiely 2011;Madsen et al 2009;Ntegeka and Willems 2008;Wang et al 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global and Regional Projected Changes in 100-yr Subdaily, Daily, and Multiday Precipitation Extremes Estimated from Three Large Ensembles of Climate Simulations

2020

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Many studies have reported projected increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events in a warmer future climate. These results challenge the assumption of climate stationarity, a standard hypothesis in the estimation of extreme precipitation quantiles (e.g., 100-yr return period) often used as key design criteria for many infrastructures. In this work, changes in hourly to 5-day precipitation extremes occurring between the 1980–99 and 2080–99 periods are investigated using three large ensembles (LE) of climate simulations. The first two are the global CanESM2 50-member ensemble at a 2.8° resolution and the global CESM1 40-member ensemble at a 1° resolution. The third is the regional CRCM5 50-member ensemble at a 0.11° resolution, driven at its boundaries by the 50-member CanESM2 ensemble over the northeastern North America (NNA) and Europe (EU) domains. Results indicate increases in the frequency of future extreme events, and, accordingly, a reduction of the return period of current extreme events for all tested spatial resolutions and temporal scales. Agreement between the three ensembles suggests that extreme precipitations, corresponding to the 100-yr return period over the reference period, become 4–5 (2–4) times more frequent on average for the NNA (EU) domain for daily and 5-day annual maximum precipitation. Projections by CRCM5-LE show even larger increases for subdaily precipitation extremes. Considering the life-span of many public infrastructures, these changes may have important implications on service levels and the design of many water infrastructures and for public safety, and should therefore be taken into consideration in establishing design criteria.

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Energetics of transient-eddy and inter-member variabilities in global and regional climate model simulations

Abstract: associated with natural phenomena of weather disturbances and IV is a model feature contributing to the uncertainties of simulations.

Cited by 6 publications

References 34 publications

Comparing interannual variability in three regional single-model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs) over Europe

Comparing interannual variability in three regional single-model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs) over Europe

The ClimEx Project: A 50-Member Ensemble of Climate Change Projections at 12-km Resolution over Europe and Northeastern North America with the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5)

Global and Regional Projected Changes in 100-yr Subdaily, Daily, and Multiday Precipitation Extremes Estimated from Three Large Ensembles of Climate Simulations

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