Energy and environmental scenarios for Australia

Marquand, C.J.; McVeigh, Jane

doi:10.1080/01430750.1995.9675661

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

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“…The s-curve can be fitted using a triangle function, logistics function, or other function, and has been used in a number of instances to model the effect of technology transitions on energy demand scenarios. Examples include examination of alternative pathways for energy in Germany (Buch 1984), the development of energy and environmental scenarios for Australia (Marquand and McVeigh 1995), predicting market penetration for fuel cells (Hollinshead et al 2005), and forecasting the growth of the solar-hydrogen economy (Reynolds 2007); a paper on a related topic (Shafizadeh et al 2007) considers the penetration of telecommuting into an urban work trip travel market as a means toward reducing energy consumption and achieving other social benefits. In any case, the s-curve allows a more realistic examination of the effect of a new technology on energy consumption and efficiency over time, since it captures the progression of stages (i.e., ''early adopter,'' ''fast follower,'' ''rapid growth,'' ''tapering off'') that is characteristic of many technology transitions.…”

Section: Choice Of Modeling Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The intensity ratio Int FCV =Int ICE is defined as an input parameter in the WHTM, where the intensity value Int is the amount of energy in the fuel (hydrogen or gasoline) consumed per unit of VKT delivered. For this application Int FCV =Int ICE was set to 0.8 in all cases, a value we calculated based on results in Marquand and McVeigh (1995). Thus for any given year, the energy consumption per kilometer of the FCV will be 80% of the value for ICE vehicles in that year.…”

Section: Definition Of Scenarios Usedmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Global Assessment of Hydrogen for Future Automotive Transportation: Projected Energy Requirements and CO₂Emissions

Ingvarsson¹,

Pestiaux

Vanek

2011

International Journal of Sustainable Transportation

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The proposed transition to hydrogen is aimed at resolving global issues, such as petroleum scarcity and CO 2 emissions, so it is sensible to look at this transition at a global level. In this paper, we present a model, named the World Hydrogen Transition Model (WHTM), that seeks to achieve two goals: 1) a projection of requirements for worldwide automobile travel measured in vehicle-kilometers traveled through the end of the 21st century, and 2) a prediction of hydrogen and underlying energy resource requirements based on different scenarios for improvement in vehicle efficiency, introduction of fuel cell vehicles, and introduction of hydrogen produced from non-fossil resources. The model includes industrializing and less developed as well as industrialized countries. Results from the model suggest that, for a range of likely scenarios, energy consumption for automobile travel will be as great or greater than current levels. However, if the transition to hydrogen fuel cell vehicles can be carried out successfully in the middle of the century, and is then followed by a transition to hydrogen from non-fossil resources, total petroleum consumption and CO 2 emissions from the automobile sector could be greatly reduced compared to current levels, thereby making motorized personal transportation more sustainable. Applicability to other emerging zero-carbon vehicle options, such as plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), is also discussed.

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Section: Choice Of Modeling Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Definition Of Scenarios Usedmentioning

confidence: 99%