Energy Sprawl Is the Largest Driver of Land Use Change in United States

Abstract

Energy production in the United States for domestic use and export is predicted to rise 27% by 2040. We quantify projected energy sprawl (new land required for energy production) in the United States through 2040. Over 200,000 km2 of additional land area will be directly impacted by energy development. When spacing requirements are included, over 800,000 km2 of additional land area will be affected by energy development, an area greater than the size of Texas. This pace of development in the United States is more than double the historic rate of urban and residential development, which has been the greatest driver of conversion in the United States since 1970, and is higher than projections for future land use change from residential development or agriculture. New technology now places 1.3 million km2 that had not previously experienced oil and gas development at risk of development for unconventional oil and gas. Renewable energy production can be sustained indefinitely on the same land base, while extractive energy must continually drill and mine new areas to sustain production. We calculated the number of years required for fossil energy production to expand to cover the same area as renewables, if both were to produce the same amount of energy each year. The land required for coal production would grow to equal or exceed that of wind, solar and geothermal energy within 2–31 years. In contrast, it would take hundreds of years for oil production to have the same energy sprawl as biofuels. Meeting energy demands while conserving nature will require increased energy conservation, in addition to distributed renewable energy and appropriate siting and mitigation.

Impacts of oil and gas development on duck brood abundance

“…Recent conservation planning demonstrates that considering cost and risk in conservation tools can help increase conservation gains (Walker et al ). Anthropogenic stressors associated with the extraction of hydrocarbon resources (e.g., oil and natural gas [oil and gas]) have added new uncertainties to this landscape because they may reduce the ecological value of priority areas through habitat loss or noise disturbance (Naugle , Allred et al , Trainor et al ). New uncertainties necessitate a reassessment of conservation strategies within the current landscape for breeding waterfowl.…”

Land-Use Planning for Zero-Energy-Buildings: Comparison of Four High-Density Cities

“…3 is the relationship between urban density and CM ratio (1). The results show that the larger the urban density, the more compensating area is required for each unit of area of use.…”

“…The importance of this problem has been further emphasized by recent studies reporting that energy sprawl, which is defined by the development of new land area required for energy production, is now one of the largest driver of land use change for the foreseeable future with increasing proportion of renewable energy harvesting. For example, Trainor et al [1], quantify projected energy sprawl in the United States through 2040. Their results show that when land-use requirements of compensating measures (CM) are included, more than 800,000 km2 of the additional land area will be affected by energy development.…”

Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Approach for the Sustainable Autonomous Energy Generation through Renewable Sources. Studying Zakynthos Island in Greece

“…According to recent studies this amount of land is enough to host RES infrastructure to cover the energy needs of the island (indicatively: Amatya et al, 2015;Andrews, Dewey-Mattia, Schechtman and Mayr, 2015;Trainor, McDonald and Fargione, 2016;Swain, Lovering, Blomqvist, Nordhaus and Hernandez, 2015).…”