Energy Sufficiency in the Household Sector of Lithuania and Hungary: The Case of Heated Floor Area

Abstract

Economic development and rising welfare lead to higher demand for energy services, which can limit or even negate the results of costly energy efficiency (EE) upgrades. At present, some consumption patterns in Central and Eastern European countries are more sustainable compared to the European Union (EU) average but are rapidly approaching it. Energy sufficiency (ES) leading to an absolute reduction in energy demand will be essential for achieving net zero climate goals, as it will contribute to reducing energy use and the significant investment needs associated with the electrification of the energy system. Various regulatory solutions can be deployed in pursuit of ES targets, but little information is available on the possible impacts on energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, especially at the national level. This paper focuses on the residential building sector of two Central and Eastern European countries: Lithuania and Hungary. It attempts to quantify the potential energy demand reduction, associated GHG savings and the resulting change in the energy mix from limiting the per capita heated floor area using scenario analysis with the MESSAGE and HU-TIMES energy system models. The findings suggest that final energy demand could be reduced by 3.6% in Lithuania and 0.9% in Hungary. This would lead to a change in the energy production mix resulting in lower GHG emissions and savings on new energy generation capacity. The results of the research are indicative, as no costs were assigned to ES measures and the calculations were based on assumed levels of ES indicators. However, they suggest that it is worth identifying the consumption segments with ES potential, as a combination of the relevant measures can largely contribute to the achievement of net zero emissions.

Energy Sufficiency in the Passenger Transport of Lithuania

“…Compared to Lithuanian households, the country's passenger transport has a greater ES potential in terms of energy savings and reductions in GHGs [12]. Due to the decrease in per capita floor area, households could save 2.5 Mtoe of energy between 2021 and 2050, while passenger transport could save up to 10 Mtoe of energy by regulating the pkm and organizing the mode shift.…”

“…Specifically, infrastructure development, awareness-raising, and information campaigns are proposed for Lithuanian passenger transport [10], considering Lithuanian conditions (Figure 11). Compared to Lithuanian households, the country's passenger transport has a greater ES potential in terms of energy savings and reductions in GHGs [12]. Due to the decrease in per capita floor area, households could save 2.5 Mtoe of energy between 2021 and 2050, while passenger transport could save up to 10 Mtoe of energy by regulating the pkm and organizing the mode shift.…”

“…Authors of [11] addressed the gaps and potentials of ES in "catching up" European economies by focussing on ES indicators and incorporating their assumptions into energy system models. The potential reduction in residential energy demand, associated GHG savings, and resulting change in the energy mix from limiting the per capita-heated floor area in Lithuania was quantified in [12]. According to the findings, the ES could contribute to the country reaching net zero emissions.…”

Impact of Key Drivers on Energy Intensity and GHG Emissions in Manufacturing in the Baltic States

“…In [42], the consumption of energy sources in Polish single-person households and the main factors influencing energy poverty, including the income level, demographic, social, and socio-economic characteristics of residents, were assessed. In [43], ES, leading to an absolute reduction in energy demand, was emphasised as the best way to achieve net-zero climate goals. ES can contribute to a reduction in energy consumption and the investment needs in the energy sector.…”