Energy System Development Scenarios: Case of Poland

Abstract

Europe’s ambition to be the first climate-neutral continent and to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 will result in changes to the energy systems of many countries. This overlaps with the principles of circular economy, energy independence, and the continuity of operations enshrined in many national and regional documents. From the above, a scenario based on renewable resources emerges. However, in a country such as Poland, with conventional energy sources and large state participation in the sector, is this feasible? The authors assumed that the urgent need for a turbulence-sensitive analysis of energy sector changes can be met by using a new view, defined by the authors as a matrix of four oceans scenarios. Black, Grey, Red and Green scenarios are determined by the proportion of the state and the local-community sector. Then, assuming the possibility of introducing two of them by 2050—Green (radical) and Red (competitive)—empirical research was carried out on a purposively selected group of experts. The business model of the sector was analyzed in terms of six links that create economic and social value: energy sources, energy producers, transmission networks with infrastructure, energy storage, energy system management and energy consumers. According to experts, development of business model links will be based on the Red scenario. Thus, we get a picture of a model that should be considered by politicians, scientists, as well as a wide audience that absorbs the effects of environmental pollution.

Critical Success Factors of the Energy Sector Security Strategy: The Case of Poland

“…However, the order of significance differs from that assumed in Maslow's hierarchy. For the development of the strategy, the social area is the least important for scientists and RES experts (Table 7, col. 3,6). A group of representatives of the governmental administration and state-owned companies recognized the environmental area as the least essential for building the strategy (Table 7, col. 4, 5).…”

“…However, the energy sector is evolving and transitioning towards a distributed model, in which meeting stakeholder expectations in the form of an economic calculus is a priority. However, this does not exclude benefits of social value [3,98]. The experts emphasized the importance of political over technological advantages.…”

“…Regional markets (e.g., the Scandinavian market) are playing increasingly important roles and are often perceived as an intermediate step preceding the target single European market. The strive to reduce CO 2 emissions and, at present, ensure energy security affects the changes in the business model of the energy sector on a national scale [3].…”

“…In total, 28 study areas were generated, 7 from each of the 4 groups. The research was conducted at the turn of October and November 2021 [3].…”

Green Energy Economies Are Continually On-Going

“…Wisniewski et al [9] assume two scenarios for Poland's energy system development by 2050-Green (radical) and Red (competitive). They then collect and analyze the opinion of a purposively selected group of experts.…”