Engineering-economic analyses of automotive fuel economy potential in the United States

Greene, David L.; DeCicco, John M.

doi:10.2172/753365

Cited by 27 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…The implied price elasticity of mpg (using the midpoint formula) is 0.2, a value generally consistent with estimates derived by Greene and DeCicco (2000).…”

Section: Higher Fuel Pricessupporting

confidence: 83%

“…This procedure ensures that technologies are implemented in order of increasing marginal cost, in accordance with economic theory. 75 A recent review of the technology cost literature indicated that two-parameter quadratic curves fit data from all studies well (Greene and DeCicco 2000). Let x be the fractional improvement in mpg (0.2 representing a 20% improvement).…”

Section: Fuel Economy Price Curvesmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…There are significant differences of opinion on this subject, although there has also been some convergence of views in published studies over the past 10 years (e.g., see Greene and DeCicco 2000;NRC 2002). The sensitivity of results to assumptions about the cost of improving fuel economy is tested by rerunning the industry-wide mpg metric analysis, with lifetime fuel accounting, by using the seven alternative cost curves, the parameters of which are shown in Table 6-5: At the 33% level, manufacturers are constrained under the Section 4 without weight reduction, Sierra, NRC Low-mpg, and NRC Average curves, as evidenced by the fact that the same mpg level, 32.7, is achieved in each case.…”

Section: Comparison Of Seven Cost Curvesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Examining the potential for voluntary fuel economy standards in the United States and Canada.

Plotkin¹,

Greene²,

Duleep³

2003

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“…The implied price elasticity of mpg (using the midpoint formula) is 0.2, a value generally consistent with estimates derived by Greene and DeCicco (2000).…”

Section: Higher Fuel Pricessupporting

confidence: 83%

Section: Fuel Economy Price Curvesmentioning

confidence: 97%

Section: Comparison Of Seven Cost Curvesmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Examining the potential for voluntary fuel economy standards in the United States and Canada.

Plotkin¹,

Greene²,

Duleep³

2003

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

“…Estimates of the cumulative cost of fuel economy improvements due to the application of technology and design changes can be accurately described by a quadratic function of the relative change in miles per gallon (Greene and DeCicco, 2000;Plotkin, Greene and Duleep, 2002, ch. 6).…”

Section: Advances In Vehicle Technology and The Price Elasticity Of Fmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Several studies have developed quadratic fuel economy cost curves for conventional, gasoline internal combustion engine vehicles (e.g., Greene and DeCicco, 2000;NRC, 2002;Greene, Hopson and Li, 2005). Curves for EERE technologies can be estimated with data on two technologies (data for only one technology would produce a linear total cost curve and a constant marginal cost which would still allow an elasticity to be calculated).…”

Section: Advances In Vehicle Technology and The Price Elasticity Of Fmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Oil Security Metrics Model: A Tool for Evaluating the Prospective Oil Security Benefits of DOE's Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy R&D Programs

Greene¹,

Leiby

2006

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A benefit-cost assessment of new vehicle technologies and fuel economy in the U.S. market

et al. 2015

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Increasingly stringent fuel economy and emissions regulations alongside efforts to reduce oil dependence have accelerated the global deployment of advanced vehicle technologies. In recent years, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and consumers have generally been successful in mutually deploying cleaner vehicle options with little sacrifice in cost, performance or overall utility. Projections regarding the challenges and impacts associated with compliance with mid-and long-term targets in the U.S., however, incur much greater uncertainty. The share of existing new vehicles that is expected to comply with future regulations, for example, falls below 10% by 2020. This article explores advanced technologies that result in reduced fuel consumption and emissions that are commercially available in 2014 Model Year compact and midsize passenger cars. A review of the recent research literature and publicly available cost and technical specification data addressing correlations between incremental cost and fuel economy is presented. This analysis reveals that a 10% improvement in the sales-weighted average fuel economy of passenger cars has been achieved between 2011 and 2014 at costs that are at or below levels anticipated by the regulations by means of reductions in weight, friction, and drag; advancements in internal combustion efficiency; turbocharging combined with engine downsizing; transmission upgrades; and the growth of hybrids. Benefit-cost analyses performed on best-selling models in the selected classifications reveal that consumers thus far are not substantially incentivized to purchase fuel economy. Under baseline conditions, benefit-cost ratios are above a breakeven value of unity for only 6 of 28 models employing improved fuel-economy technologies. Sales-weighted data indicate that the "average" consumer that elected to invest in greater fuel economy spent $1490 to realize a 17.3% improvement in fuel economy, equating to estimated savings of $1070. Thus savings were, on average, insufficient to cover technology costs in the baseline scenario. However, a sensitivity analysis reveals that a majority of new technologies become financially attractive to consumers when average fuel prices exceed $5.60/gallon, or when annual miles travelled exceed 16,400. The article concludes with techno-economic implications of the research on future fuel economy regulations for stakeholders. In general, the additional cost consumers incur in exchange for a given level of fuel economy improvement in the coming years will need to be steadily reduced compared to current levels to ensure that the expected benefits of fuel savings are financially warranted.

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Engineering-economic analyses of automotive fuel economy potential in the United States

Cited by 27 publications

References 13 publications

Examining the potential for voluntary fuel economy standards in the United States and Canada.

Examining the potential for voluntary fuel economy standards in the United States and Canada.

The Oil Security Metrics Model: A Tool for Evaluating the Prospective Oil Security Benefits of DOE's Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy R&D Programs

A benefit-cost assessment of new vehicle technologies and fuel economy in the U.S. market

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