Environmental impacts of transformative land use and transport developments in the Greater Beijing Region: Insights from a new dynamic spatial equilibrium model

Jin, Ying; Denman, Steve; Deng, Debbie; Rong, Xiao; Ma, Mingfei; Wan, Li; Mao, Qizhi; Zhao, Liang; Long, Ying

doi:10.1016/j.trd.2016.12.009

Cited by 11 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…Compared to Reference [61], in which the assessment of the degree of change in the transport demand was also carried out, in the presented study additional important information was obtained: the transport supply was evaluated relative to the transport demand under adverse weather conditions. In contrast to Reference [63], the present study did not take into account the transport mode distribution depending on the travel length, because the object of study is one of the subsystems of the city's transport system-transport flow management. Studies on changes in the distribution of the number of trips made by different ways and modes of transportation, taking into account weather conditions, are very topical.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 94%

“…As reported in a number of studies [61][62][63][64][65], in order to increase the sustainability of the transport system, the recommended measures include: reducing the number of trips taken by private transport, promoting the more extensive use of bicycles and public transport, and promoting taxis, car-sharing, and pedestrian movements. This concept has found wide application in most cities of the world and its implementation ensures the availability of transport, its ongoing safety, and a reduction in negative impacts on the environment.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Sustainability of the Urban Transport System under Changes in Weather and Road Conditions Affecting Vehicle Operation

2018

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The paper suggests a methodological approach for assessing the sustainability of the urban transport system. Parameters were selected for assessing the sustainability of the transport system and significant factors affecting sustainability were determined. Parameters of the sustainability of the system when changes in the weather and road conditions affect vehicle operation were estimated on the basis of the simulation modeling. An integral indicator of sustainability was introduced to evaluate the sustainability of the transport flow management subsystem and the methodological approach to its calculation was substantiated. The results from changing the parameters of the traffic flow were demonstrated in the case of a significant amount of precipitation and the constraints put on the movement of vehicles on the road infrastructure unit due to snow-removal operations and road traffic accidents. Also, the parameters of road traffic under the reconstruction of the main street of regulated traffic into a street of uninterrupted traffic were presented.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 94%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sustainability of the Urban Transport System under Changes in Weather and Road Conditions Affecting Vehicle Operation

2018

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“…It is distributed endogenously in the Recursive Dynamic Model according to price levels in the previous decade (see Equations 9 and 10 for the calculation of floorspace supply). We follow the assumption from Jin et al (2017) and estimate that natural growth accounts for 50% of the projected total growth. This ratio can be modified by the modeller.…”

Section: Model Application: Which Greenspace Configuration For Greater Beijing In 2030?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic impacts of alternative greenspace configurations in fast growing cities: The case of Greater Beijing

Jin

2018

Urban Studies

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Greenspaces at the city scale, like greenbelts, green-wedges or green-grids have become wellknown instruments for shaping urban economic activity and land use. The economic impacts of such instruments are complex and hard to measure. This paper addresses one of the rarely studied problems of measuring economic impacts of alternative greenspace configurations in fast growing cities. In such cities, there is an uncertain basis for making such greenspace related decisions, for example the assumptions about the cities' total population and economic activity. Decision makers have few tools to measure and predict the potential economic costs and benefits of alternative greenspace configurations. We present a new model that allows tracking over time of both non-divisible land use decisions and a multitude of gradual adaptations made by businesses and consumers. The model is applied to Greater Beijing, one of the fast growing cities that is actively exploring alternative greenspace configurations to control urban expansion. The modelling results suggest that compared to the trend-development scenario of no greenspace intervention, a strict greenbelt would decrease the overall consumer surplus in Beijing by $3.3 billion, while an adaptive mix of green-wedges and green-grid would increase consumer surplus by $3.6 billion per year in 2030. The adaptive configuration also reduces car journeys by 11% in Beijing. More generally, modelling results show that a flexible design of strategic greenspaces and careful siting of new development around metro stations within the designated greenspaces could benefit consumers and promote sustainable travel.

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“…The model is designed for examining medium-to long-term impacts of major urban land-use and transport development options. Its potential use in practical policy analysis is reported in Jin et al (2017). The model covers the administrative area of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei in China (locally known as the 'Jing-Jin-Ji' city region), which has a total population of approximately 110 million in 2014 across a geographical area of over 216 thousand km 2 .…”

Section: Model Application For Greater Beijingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of model validation outcomes of a new recursive spatial equilibrium model for the Greater Beijing

Wan

Jin

2017

Environment and Planning B: Urban Analytics and City Science

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Robust calibration and validation of applied urban models are prerequisites for their successful, policy-cogent use. This is particularly important today when expert assessment is questioned and closely scrutinized. This paper proposes a new model calibration-validation strategy based on a spatial equilibrium model that incorporates multiple time horizons, such that the predictive capabilities of the model can be empirically tested. The model is implemented for the Greater Beijing city region and the model validation strategy is demonstrated over the Census years 2000 to 2010. Through forward/backward forecasting, the model validation helps to verify the stability of the model parameters as well as the predictive capabilities of the recursive equilibrium framework. The proposed modelling strategy sets a new standard for verifying and validating recursive equilibrium models. We also consider the wider implications of the approach.

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Environmental impacts of transformative land use and transport developments in the Greater Beijing Region: Insights from a new dynamic spatial equilibrium model

Cited by 11 publications

References 16 publications

Sustainability of the Urban Transport System under Changes in Weather and Road Conditions Affecting Vehicle Operation

Sustainability of the Urban Transport System under Changes in Weather and Road Conditions Affecting Vehicle Operation

Economic impacts of alternative greenspace configurations in fast growing cities: The case of Greater Beijing

Assessment of model validation outcomes of a new recursive spatial equilibrium model for the Greater Beijing

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