Envisioning structural transformation — lessons from a foresight project on the future of innovation

Schirrmeister, Elna; Warnke, Philine

doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2012.10.008

Cited by 22 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…This could be seen in examples where the production team in Denmark expressed (through the visual model) the total cost of suppliers for the supply chain team in Denmark, who received a visual representation. These positive results are also mentioned by Schirrmeister and Warnke [77]. Before the narrative and numerical models can be elaborated, the CSA facilitators have to collect knowledge from/of the company, the situation, the stakeholders and the mental models in order to determine and understand the needs and complexities.…”

Section: Figurementioning

confidence: 89%

Interactive foresight simulation

Hansen

Rasmussen

Jacobsen

2016

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

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The Combined Simulation Approach (CSA) is a way to evaluate risks and address potential unforeseen problems in a more interactive way than what is often observed in practice in companies or sectors. The approach is based on a combination of scenario analysis and discrete-event computer simulation with which the strategies can be continuously developed. The contribution of this paper is to narrow the knowledge gapbetween strategic, tactical and operational levels of an organisation. The paper demonstrates how it is possible to work proactively with both the breadth and depth of strategies using a Danish knowledge intensive company as an example.

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Section: Figurementioning

confidence: 89%

Interactive foresight simulation

Hansen

Rasmussen

Jacobsen

2016

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

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“…The methodological framework is built upon the concept of futures thinking, which makes it possible to 'constructively think about the futures' [88,90], capture topics simultaneously under conditions of deep uncertainty [91][92][93][94], and unlock the potential for paradigmatic change rather than just highlighting incremental improvements along current trajectories [45]. This approach makes the project better than previous fragmented approaches, in that the WS can be analysed as a complex system, providing at the same time deeper diagnoses and prognoses about the WS futures.…”

Section: Main Objective and Research Questionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Futures of European welfare models and policies: seeking actual research questions, and new problem-solving arsenal for European welfare states

et al. 2016

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The key research question is to discuss and elaborate the potential value added that futures studies could provide for European citizens and political, social and economic institutions. In the article the problems of European welfare policy issues are theoretically described and analysed. In the article broader framework to understand key policy issues of European welfare policy challenges are defined. A general analysis and generic model for European welfare policy is presented. The Authors also present futures oriented methodological approach to analyse and solve new challenges of European welfare policy problems. Key contributions of this article are: (1) Analysis of theoretical basis for construction of welfare models in future environments, (2) the relationship between research questions and topics in welfare policy planning and management, (3) the analysis of the relationship between futures oriented research questions, methodological stages and outcomes in the field of European welfare policy and (4) the concrete methodological proposal how futures research methodology can help to solve future puzzles of European welfare policy.

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“…Understanding the difficulties for FTA to dealing with the grand challenges of humanity helps, therefore, improve the FTA practice in developing its approaches, where FTA needs to demonstrate that there might be opportunities for innovation and new markets in grand challenges. For instance, [14] give "waste--based innovation" as an example of such opportunity, which appears to be suitable for aligning scientific/ technological and social innovation to achieve a structural transformation.…”

Section: Joint Responses To Grand Challengesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Shaper--Rinkel [13] analyses future--oriented governance of emerging technologies in the USA and in Germany, and stresses the need of an organisational structure that includes a variety of actors and perspectives from the outset of an endeavour in order to properly foster nanotechnology by establishing governance structures able to coordinate interactions of relevant actors. Schirrmeister and Warnke [14] contribute towards building foresight capacities for systemic and structural transformations by proposing an original methodological approach that combines four specific features: inductive approach, visual inspiration, assessment of coverage of dimensions of change, and prolonged divergence. Finally, Georghiou and Harper [3] set the scene against which change is considered and show the landscape that has formed the demand and influenced the practice of FTA to show that alignment of approaches, consideration of users' perspectives and divergence, and the need for social shaping seem critical to advance FTA practice in light of anticipating disruptive innovations and events.…”

Section: Papers In This Special Issuementioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Future-oriented technology analysis: Its potential to address disruptive transformations

Cagnin

Havas

Sarıtas

2013

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

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This paper reflects on the potential of future--oriented analysis (FTA) to address major change and to support decision--makers and other stakeholders in anticipating and dealing with transformations. It does so by critically reflecting on the selected papers for this special issue as well as on the discussions that took place at the fourth Seville International Conference on Future--oriented Technology Analysis. Considering the potential roles of FTA in enabling a better understanding of complex situations and in defining effective policy responses leads to the understanding that appropriate FTA practices are needed to enable FTA to fulfil such roles. Dealing with disruptive changes - and grand challenges in particular -, therefore, raises several conceptual, methodological and operational issues. Two of them are general, while further two are specific to the so--called grand challenges: i) distinguish known unknowns, unknown knows and unknown unknowns, ii) combine quantitative and qualitative approaches in a relevant and feasible way, iii) understand the complex and systemic nature of grand challenges, and iv) orchestrate joint responses to grand challenges. After a brief explanation of these issues, the paper outlines the main ideas of the papers published in this special issue. These present various methodological aspects of FTA approaches as well as some advances needed in practice to assist FTA practitioners and stakeholders in comprehending transformations and in tackling the so--called grand challenges.

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Envisioning structural transformation — lessons from a foresight project on the future of innovation

Cited by 22 publications

References 9 publications

Interactive foresight simulation

Interactive foresight simulation

Futures of European welfare models and policies: seeking actual research questions, and new problem-solving arsenal for European welfare states

Future-oriented technology analysis: Its potential to address disruptive transformations

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