This article studies the relevance of psychological biases and heuristics in the context of foresight and scenario processes. Though there is extensive literature studying cognitive mechanisms from the psychological side, discussions on the application of these findings in the foresight context, and more specifically with regard to specific steps of the scenario method, are rare. Some studies focus on a potential debiasing effect of scenario processes and do not examine the role biases and heuristics play during the process. We address this gap drawing from empirical research and practical experience. First, we examine the relevant cognitive mechanisms using a twofold perspective: Can the respective mechanism be an impediment or can it be an enabler within the scenario process? We specify the circumstances under which the respective mechanism occurs and establish its assumed effects. Second, we outline recommendations on how to modify the method to reduce the bias or to take advantage of it, respectively. In summary, we propose that the contextual debiasing effect of scenario processes can be significantly advanced by applying these modifications and a facilitation team that is aware of psychological biases and heuristics. Finally, implications for the scenario method and directions for future research are discussed.

The urgency of current social challenges is driving new approaches to framing and funding research, development, and innovation. The “mission-oriented” approach framing the EU’s New Horizons funding program is the latest institutional response to the pressing needs of large system transformations we are facing. We view the likely targets of mission-oriented programs as dynamic entities requiring both adaptive, inclusive responses, and anticipatory exploration. We demonstrate how participatory foresight methods provide an essential forum and process for the expression of plural, socio-technological imaginaries. As citizens and other stakeholder groups have demonstrated their myriad capacities to contribute to research and innovation agenda-setting processes in future-oriented citizen dialogs, we argue that such methods are the essential compliment to the mission-oriented framework coming into play. Participatory foresight engages citizens in critical thinking and creative activities to articulate the evolution of socio-technological issues over an extended time horizon, seeking diverse perspectives on what goals and priorities will come to define “missions.” Utilizing outputs from two recent projects, we argue that participatory foresight methods can play an essential role in bridging citizen needs with policy requirements, and will increase the reflexivity of innovation systems that invest the needed time and resources into exploring the depth of multi-actor interests and intersections. Finally, we outline possible impact pathways demonstrating how these “bottom-up” contributions could be integrated into the development of challenge-led innovation priorities.

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This paper outlines new perspectives for data-supported foresight by combining participatory expert-based futures dialogues with the power of artificial intelligence (AI) in what we call the hybrid AI-expert-based foresight approach. To this end, we present a framework of five typical steps in a fully fledged foresight process ranging from scoping to strategizing and show how AI can be integrated into each of the steps to enable the hybrid AI-expert foresight approach. Building on this, we present experiences gained from two recent research projects of TNO and Fraunhofer ISI that deal with aspects of the hybrid AI-expert foresight approach and give insights into the opportunities and challenges of the new perspectives for data-supported foresight that this approach enables. Finally, we summarize open questions and challenges for future research.