Epidemiological and numerical simulation of rabies spreading from canines to various human populations in mainland China

Abstract

Background The mortality of humans due to rabies in China has been declining in recent years, but it is still a significant public health problem. According to the global framework, China strives to achieve the goal of eliminating human rabies before 2030. Methods We reviewed the epidemiology of human deaths from rabies in mainland China from 2004 to 2018. We identified high risk regions, age and occupational groups, and used a continuous deterministic susceptibility-exposure-infection-recovery (SEIR) model with periodic transmission rate to explore seasonal rabies prevalence in different human populations. The SEIR model was used to simulate the data of human deaths from rabies reported by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC). We calculated the relative transmission intensity of rabies from canines to different human groups, and they provided a reliable epidemiological basis for further control and prevention of human rabies. Results Results showed that human deaths from rabies exhibited regional differences and seasonal characteristics in mainland China. The annual human death from rabies in different regions, age groups and occupational groups decreased steadily across time. Nevertheless, the decreasing rates and the calculated R0s of canines of various human groups were different. The transmission intensity of rabies from canines to human populations was the highest in the central regions of China, in people over 45 years old, and in farmers. Conclusions Although the annual cases of human deaths from rabies have decreased steadily since 2007, the proportion of human deaths from rabies varies with region, age, gender, and occupation. Further enhancement of public awareness and immunization status in high-risk population groups and blocking the transmission routes of rabies from canines to humans are necessary. The concept of One Health should be abided and human, animal, and environmental health should be considered simultaneously to achieve the goal of eradicating human rabies before 2030.

The final stages of dog rabies elimination from Japan

“…Our estimates of R t calculated from detected clusters of rabies cases were consistent with other studies, with R 0 in rabies outbreaks from around the world previously reported to range between 1.05 and 1.85 (Dürr & Ward, 2015;Hampson et al, 2009;Lu et al, 2021) (even higher R 0 such as 1.62-2.33 (Coleman & Dye, 1996) and 2.42 (Kurosawa et al, 2017) have been reported). R 0 can be calculated using R t if the proportion of the dog population that was susceptible S t is available; however, dog vaccination records were only reported in Tokyo, and numbers of unregistered and free-roaming dogs are not known.…”

A game-theoretic model of rabies in domestic dogs with multiple voluntary preventive measures

“…The values seem consistent with values used in other papers modeling rabies such as Lu et al. ( 2021 ), Zinsstag et al. ( 2009 ), Hampson et al.…”

Factors Associated with Dog Rabies Immunization in Changsha, China: Results of a Cross-Sectional Cluster Survey, 2015–2021

“…According to WHO, the rabies outbreaks have routinely been recorded in China, and the number of rabies cases in humans in different region of China is shown in Figure 1 (2014–2018), demonstrating that rabies is a constant public health threat in China [ 12 , 13 , 14 ]. According to the statistics, the number of rabies deaths in China peaked in 2007 with 3300 cases and declined to 290 cases in 2019 [ 1 , 15 ]. The main reasons for the decrease in mortality are the government’s management of post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) and the increased level of rabies-related knowledge and awareness, which has led to more people making timely and relevant post-exposure management measures [ 12 , 16 , 17 , 18 ].…”