Epidemiological modeling of bovine brucellosis in India

Abstract

The study objective is to develop an epidemiological model of brucellosis transmission dynamics among cattle in India and to estimate the impact of different prevention and control strategies. The prevention and control strategies are test-and-slaughter, transmission rate reduction, and mass vaccination. We developed a mathematical model based on the susceptible-infectious-recovered epidemic model to simulate brucellosis transmission dynamics, calibrated to the endemically stable levels of bovine brucellosis prevalence of cattle in India. We analyzed the epidemiological benefit of different rates of reduced transmission and vaccination. Test-and-slaughter is an effective strategy for elimination and eradication of brucellosis, but socio-cultural constraints forbid culling of cattle in India. Reducing transmission rates lowered the endemically stable levels of brucellosis prevalence correspondingly. One-time vaccination lowered prevalence initially but increased with influx of new susceptible births. While this epidemiological model is a basic representation of brucellosis transmission dynamics in India and constrained by limitations in surveillance data, this study illustrates the comparative epidemiological impact of different bovine brucellosis prevention and control strategies.

Seroprevalence and risk factors of brucellosis in livestock in the wildlife and livestock interface area of Similipal Biosphere Reserve, India

“…Brucellosis is an important zoonotic disease affecting the health of domesticated animals and humans [1], and as of now, 12 species of Brucella have been identified affecting a wide range of vertebrate hosts [2]. Brucella abortus and Brucella melitensis are the major cause of bovine and caprine brucellosis, respectively [1], and in their natural hosts, the major manifestation of the disease is abortion and infertility [3,4]. Among the species that cause human infection, B. melitensis is the most virulent [1].…”

“…Worldwide, an estimated 500,000 cases of human brucellosis occur every year [2]. The major routes of human transmission include contact with animal secretions, consumption of raw dairy products, and undercooked meat [3]. In India, an estimated 80% of the population live in close contact with domestic or wild animals and are at risk of acquiring brucellosis [5].…”

“…In India, an estimated 80% of the population live in close contact with domestic or wild animals and are at risk of acquiring brucellosis [5]. In humans, Brucella causes acute and chronic infections, and a lack of awareness may lead to misdiagnosis [3,5]. Several studies have reported human brucellosis in India, and the prevalence is high in individuals who are in close contact with farm animals [3,5].…”

Bovine brucellosis – a comprehensive review

“…Another recent meta-analysis on animal diseases in North Eastern India showed 17% prevalence of bovine brucellosis (Barman et al 2020 ). There have been attempts to develop mathematical simulation models to study brucellosis transmission dynamics in an attempt to calibrate the stable levels of bovine brucellosis among cattle population in India (Kang et al 2014 ). It was reported in this study that reducing transmission rates will result in lowering the endemically stable prevalence levels of brucellosis in India.…”

Spatio-temporal simulation of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak using the agent-based modeling approach (case study: Urmia, Iran)

“…There are three epidemiological modeling approaches including the ordinary differential equation (ODE) model [ [21] , [22] , [23] , [24] , [25] ], cellular automata (CA) model [ 26 , 27 ], and ABM [ 15 , [28] , [29] , [30] , [31] , [32] ]. ODE models simulate phenomena by greatly simplifying them.…”