OBJECTIVE -The first sign of diabetic nephropathy is microalbuminuria, but its predictive role of progression to overt nephropathy in type 2 diabetes has not yet been clarified. The aims of this study were to assess during 7 years of follow-up the incidence rate of overt nephropathy and the predictive role of microalbuminuria and other baseline variables (blood pressure, lipids, fibrinogen, uric acid, smoking, and HbA 1c cumulative average during follow-up).
RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS-A prospective population-based study was performed in Casale Monferrato, Italy, including 1,253 type 2 diabetic patients recruited at baseline (1991)(1992), 765 with normoalbuminuria (albumin excretion rate [AER] Ͻ20 g/ min) and 488 with microalbuminuria (AER 20 -200 g/min). All measurements were centralized. A nested case-control study within the cohort was performed, selecting four control subjects, frequency matched for age and attained individual time of follow-up with each case. Conditional regression analysis was performed to assess variables independently associated with risk of progression to overt nephropathy.RESULTS -Of 1,253 total patients, 1,103 (88.0%) were included in the follow-up examination (median 5.33 years); their age and duration of disease at baseline were 68.4 Ϯ 10.5 years and 10.4 Ϯ 6.6 years, respectively. Cases of overt nephropathy were 202, giving an incidence rate of 37.0/1,000 person-years (95% CI 32.3-42.6). In conditional logistic regression analyses, microalbuminuria provided a 42% increased risk with respect to normoalbuminuria (95% CI 0.98 -2.06), independently of duration of diabetes, hypertension, and systolic blood pressure. Other variables independently associated with progression to overt nephropathy were HbA 1c cumulative average (P ϭ 0.002), apolipoprotein B (P ϭ 0.013), fibrinogen (P ϭ 0.02), and HDL cholesterol (P ϭ 0.03).CONCLUSIONS -Of type 2 diabetic patients, 3.7% progress every year to overt nephropathy. Microalbuminuria is associated with a 42% increased risk of progression to overt nephropathy. Other independent predictors are HbA 1c , HDL cholesterol, apolipoprotein B, and fibrinogen.
Diabetes Care 26:2150 -2155, 2003T emporal trends of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) caused by diabetic nephropathy are increasing worldwide, so that diabetes represents the second leading cause of dialysis in most centers (1,2). The first sign of renal involvement is microalbuminuria, which affects 20 -40% of patients with type 2 diabetes (3). When macroalbuminuria occurs, glomerular filtration rate declines, with an average reduction of 10 -12 ml ⅐ min Ϫ1 ⅐ yearThe predictive role of microalbuminuria in progression to overt nephropathy in type 2 diabetes has not yet been clarified, however (4 -6). With respect to previous studies, more recent ones have suggested a lesser predictive role (5,6). A benefit of lipid-lowering treatment on risk of progression to overt nephropathy has also been hypothesized (7). Abnormalities in lipoprotein metabolism, such as elevations in triglycerides and apolipoprotein...