Epidemiology of Seasonal Influenza: Use of Surveillance Data and Statistical Models to Estimate the Burden of Disease

Thompson, W.; Comanor, Lorraine; Shay, David K.

doi:10.1086/507558

Cited by 247 publications

(208 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…Mongolia's total land area is 1 566 600 km 2 and its population density was 1.7 people per square kilometre in 2008. The average annual rainfall is low (200-220 mm) with the heaviest rainfall between June and August.…”

Section: -5mentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating influenza disease burden during the 2008-2009 and 2009-2010 influenza seasons in Mongolia

Nukiwa¹,

Burmaa²,

Kamigaki³

et al. 2011

WPSAR

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Section: -5mentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating influenza disease burden during the 2008-2009 and 2009-2010 influenza seasons in Mongolia

Nukiwa¹,

Burmaa²,

Kamigaki³

et al. 2011

WPSAR

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“…During influenza epidemics, severe illness occurs in up to five million people worldwide each year, with an estimated 500 000 deaths [2][3][4]. The almost continuous accumulation of amino acid changes in the surface glycoprotein haemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) of seasonal influenza viruses facilitates viral escape from antibody-mediated immunity of the human host induced by prior infections or vaccinations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Neuraminidase-mediated haemagglutination of recent human influenza A(H3N2) viruses is determined by arginine 150 flanking the neuraminidase catalytic site

Mögling

Richard

Vliet

et al. 2017

Journal of General Virology

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Over the last decade, an increasing proportion of circulating human influenza A(H3N2) viruses exhibited haemagglutination activity that was sensitive to neuraminidase inhibitors. This change in haemagglutination as compared to older circulating A(H3N2) viruses prompted an investigation of the underlying molecular basis. Recent human influenza A(H3N2) viruses were found to agglutinate turkey erythrocytes in a manner that could be blocked with either oseltamivir or neuraminidase-specific antisera, indicating that agglutination was driven by neuraminidase, with a low or negligible contribution of haemagglutinin. Using representative virus recombinants it was shown that the haemagglutinin of a recent A(H3N2) virus indeed had decreased activity to agglutinate turkey erythrocytes, while its neuraminidase displayed increased haemagglutinating activity. Viruses with chimeric and mutant neuraminidases were used to identify the amino acid substitution histidine to arginine at position 150 flanking the neuraminidase catalytic site as the determinant of this neuraminidase-mediated haemagglutination. An analysis of publicly available neuraminidase gene sequences showed that viruses with histidine at position 150 were rapidly replaced by viruses with arginine at this position between 2005 and 2008, in agreement with the phenotypic data. As a consequence of neuraminidase-mediated haemagglutination of recent A(H3N2) viruses and poor haemagglutination via haemagglutinin, haemagglutination inhibition assays with A(H3N2) antisera are no longer useful to characterize the antigenic properties of the haemagglutinin of these viruses for vaccine strain selection purposes. Continuous monitoring of the evolution of these viruses and potential consequences for vaccine strain selection remains important.

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“…Near real‐time surveillance for pneumonia and influenza (P&I) and all‐cause mortality was established in major US cities after the 1918 pandemic 7. Early estimates of the 2009–2010 pandemic mortality burden based on these data indicate low‐to‐moderate excess mortality, with disproportionate excess deaths in younger age groups compared with seasonal influenza 5.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mortality burden of the 2009‐10 influenza pandemic in the United States: improving the timeliness of influenza severity estimates using inpatient mortality records

Charu

Simonsen

Lustig³

et al. 2013

Influenza Resp Viruses

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BackgroundDelays in the release of national vital statistics hinder timely assessment of influenza severity, especially during pandemics. Inpatient mortality records could provide timelier estimates of influenza‐associated mortality.MethodsWe compiled weekly age‐specific deaths for various causes from US State Inpatient Databases (1990–2010) and national vital statistics (1990–2009). We calculated influenza‐attributable excess deaths by season based on Poisson regression models driven by indicators of respiratory virus activity, seasonality, and temporal trends.ResultsExtrapolations of excess mortality from inpatient data fell within 11% and 17% of vital statistics estimates for pandemic and seasonal influenza, respectively, with high year‐to‐year correlation (Spearman's rho = 0·87–0·90, P < 0·001, n = 19). We attribute 14 800 excess respiratory and cardiac deaths (95% CI: 10 000–19 650) to pandemic influenza activity during April 2009–April 2010, 79% of which occurred in people under 65 years.ConclusionsModeling inpatient mortality records provides useful estimates of influenza severity in advance of national vital statistics release, capturing both the magnitude and the age distribution of pandemic and epidemic deaths. We provide the first age‐ and cause‐specific estimates of the 2009 pandemic mortality burden using traditional ‘excess mortality’ methods, confirming the unusual burden of this virus in young populations. Our inpatient‐based approach could help monitor mortality trends in other infectious diseases.

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Epidemiology of Seasonal Influenza: Use of Surveillance Data and Statistical Models to Estimate the Burden of Disease

Cited by 247 publications

References 14 publications

Evaluating influenza disease burden during the 2008-2009 and 2009-2010 influenza seasons in Mongolia

Evaluating influenza disease burden during the 2008-2009 and 2009-2010 influenza seasons in Mongolia

Neuraminidase-mediated haemagglutination of recent human influenza A(H3N2) viruses is determined by arginine 150 flanking the neuraminidase catalytic site

Mortality burden of the 2009‐10 influenza pandemic in the United States: improving the timeliness of influenza severity estimates using inpatient mortality records

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